Water for future (물과 미래)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Development of Flow Forecasting System in Large Drainage Basin

대유역의 유량예측 시스템 개발에 관한 연구

  • 배덕효 (연세대학교 산업기술연구소)
  • Published : 1995.06.01
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Abstract

The subject research attempts to develop a hydrologic-hydraulic forecasting system suitable for use in large river basins. A conceptual hydrologic rainfall-runoff model is used to produce streamflow from meteorological and hydrologic input data over each subbasin, while a hydraulic model is used to route the catchment outflows in the stream network. For operational flow prediction, an efficient state estimator has been designed for the real-time updating of model states from newly recorded data. The real-time application of the forecasting system indicates that this model produces reliable short-term predicted results.

본 연구는 대유역의 유량예측을 위한 수공학적 모형 시스템을 개발하는데 있다. 이 시스템은 각각의 부분유역에서의 기상학적, 수문학적 입력자료를 바탕으로 하천유량을 예측하는 개념적인 수문학적 강우유출모형과 각부분유역의 예측유량을 입력치로 하여 하도홍수추적을 하는 수리학적 모형으로 구성되어 있다. 실시간 해석시 새로운 관측자료로부터 모형의 상태변량을 최적화 할 수 있는 효율적인 상태변량 추정자가 사용되었다. 실시간 유량예측을 위해서 본 연구에서 개발된 모형을 적용하여 본 결과, 예측가능시간이 짧은 경우 대유역의 실시간 유량예측모형으로서 타당한 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

References

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