Simplification of Monte Carlo Techniques for the Estimation of Expected Benefits in Stochastic Analysis of Multiple Reservoir System

For the system benefit optimization by considering risk or reliability from a multiple reservoir system using the Monte Carlo Technique, Many stochastically generated inflow series have to be used for the system analysis. In this study, the stochastically generated inflow series for the multiple reservoir system operation are preprocessed according to the considering system objectives and operating time periods. Through this procedure, several representative inflow series which have discrate probability levels and operation horizons are selected among the thousands of generated inflows. Then a deterministic optimization technique is applied to the hydropower energy estimation from the Han River Reservoir System which considers five reservoirs in this study. It took much less computational requirements than using the original Morite Carlo Technique, even though estimated result was almost similar.