A Forecasting Model for the Flood Peak Stage and Flood Travel Time by Hydraulic Flood Routing

The peak flood discharge at a downstream station and the flood travel time between a pair of dams due to a specific flood release from the upper reservoir are computed using a hydraulic river channel routing method. The study covered the whole large reservoir system in the Han River, Korea. The computed flood discharges and the travel times between dams were correlated with the duration and the magnitude of flood release rate at the upstream reservoir, and hence a multiple regression model is proposed for each river reach between a pair of dams. The peak flood discharge at a downstream location can be converted to the peak flood stage by a rating curve. Hence, the proposed regression model could be used to forecast the peak flood stage at a downstream location and the flood travel time between dams using the information on the flood travel time, release rate and duration from the upper dam.