장기유출량의 추계학적 모의 발생에 관한 연구 (II)

Studies on the Stochastic Generation of Long Term Runoff (2)

This study was conducted to get reasonable and abundant hydrological time series of monthly flows simulated by a best fitting stochastic simulation model for the establishment of rational design and the rationalization of management for agricultural hydraulic structures including reservoirs. Comparative analysis carried out for both statistical characteristics and synthetic monthly flows simulated by the multi-season first order Markov model based on Gamma distribution which is confirmed as good one in the first report of this study and by Harmonic synthetic model analyzed in this report for the six watersheds of Yeong San and Seom Jin river systems. 1.Arithmetic mean values of synthetic monthly flows simulated by Gamma distribution are much closer to the results of the observed data than those of Harmonic synthetic model in the applied watersheds. 2.In comparison with the coefficients of variation, index of fluctuation for monthly flows simulated by two kinds of synthetic models, those based on Gamma distribution are appeared closer to the observed data than those of Harmonic synthetic model both in Yeong San and Seom Jin river systems. 3.It was found that synthetic monthly flows based on Gamma distribution are considered to give better results than those of Harmonic synthetic model in the applied watersheds. 4.Continuation studies by comparison with other simulation techniques are to be desired for getting reasonable generation technique of synthetic monthly flows for the various river systems in Korea.