The possibility of failure of system component by fuzzy sets

Fuzzy Sets을 이용한 시스템 부품의 고장가능성 진단에 관한 모델

In conventional fault-tree analysis, the failure probabilities of components of a system are treated as exact values in estimating the failure probability of the top event. For the plant layout and systems of the products, however, it is often difficult to evaluate the failure probabilities of components from past occurences, because the environments of the systems change. Furthermore, it might be necessary to consider possible failure of components of the systems even if they have never failed before. In the paper, instead of the probability of failure, we propose the possibility of failure, viz, a fuzzy set defined in probability space. Thus, in this paper based on a fuzzy fault-tree model, the maximum possibility of system failure is determined from the possibility of failure of each component within the system according to the extension principle.