Establishment of Zero-Accident Goal Period Based on Time Series Analysis of Accident Tendency

재해율 예측에 근거한 사업장별 무재해 목표시간의 설정

If zero-accident movement is to be successful, the objective goal period should be surely obtainable, and much more in our country where frequency rate of injury are remarkably fluc-tuating. However In our country, as far as we know, no method to establish a reasonable zero-accident goal period is guaranteed. In thls paper, a new establishing-method of reasonable goal period for individual industry with considering recent accident trend is presented. A mathematical model for industrial accidents generation was analyzed, and a stochastic process model for the accident generation inteual was formulated. This model could tell the accident generation rate in future by understanding the accident tendency through the time-series analysis and search for the distribution of numbers of accidents and accident interval. On the basis of this, the forecasting method of goal achievement probability by the size and the establishment method of reasonable goal period were developed.