Economic Impact of the Tariff Reform : A General Equilibrium Approach

관세율(關稅率) 조정(調整) 경제적(經濟的) 효과분석(效果分析) : 일반균형적(一般均衡的) 접근(接近)

A major change in tariff rates was made in January 1989 in Korea. The benchmark tariff rate, which applies to about two thirds of all commodity items, was lowered to 15 percent from 20 percent. In addition, the variation in tariff rates among different types of commodities was reduced. This paper examines the economic impact of the tariff reform using a multisectoral general equilibrium model of the Korean economy which was introduced by Lee and Chang(1988), and by Lee(1988). More specifically, this paper attempts to find the changes in imports, exports, domestic production, consumption, prices, and employment in 31 different sectors of the economy induced by the reform in tariff rates. The policy simulations are made according to three different methods. First, tariff changes in industries are calculated strictly according to the change in legal tariff rates, which tend to over-estimate the size of the tariff reduction given the tariff-drawback system and tariff exemption applied to various import items. Second, tariff changes in industries are obtained by dividing the estimated tariff revenues of each industry by the estimated imports for that industry, which are often called actual tariff rates. According to the first method, the import-weighted average tariff rate is lowered from 15.2% to 10.2%, while the second method changes the average tariff rate from 6.2% to 4.2%. In the third method, the tariff-drawback system is internalized in the model. This paper reports the results of the policy simulation according to all three methods, comparing them with one another. It is argued that the second method yields the most realistic estimate of the changes in macro-economic variables, while the third method is useful in delineating the differences in impact across industries. The findings, according to the second method, show that the tariff reform induces more imports in most sectors. Garments, leather products, and wood products are those industries in which imports increase by more than 5 percent. On the other hand, imports in agricultural, mining and service sectors are least affected. Domestic production increases in all sectors except the following: leather products, non-metalic products, chemicals, paper and paper products, and wood-product industries. The increase in production and employment is largest in export industries, followed by service industries. An impact on macroeconomic variables is also simulated. The tariff reform increases nominal GNP by 0.26 percent, lowers the consumer price index by 0.49 percent, increases employment by 0.24 percent, and worsens the trade balance by 480 million US dollars, through a rise in exports of 540 million US dollars and a rise in imports of 1.02 billion US dollars.

본고(本稿)에서는 1989년 1월에 시행된 관세율(關稅率) 조정(調整)이 산업별(産業別) 생산(生産), 수출입(輸出入), 물가지수(物價指數), 고용(雇傭) 등에 미치는 영향을 한국경제(韓國經濟)의 다부문(多部門) 일반균형(一般均衡)을 통하여 분석하였다. 분석결과에 의하면 관세율(關稅率)의 조정(調整)은 대부분의 산업(産業)에서 수입(輸入)과 수출(輸出)을 동시에 증가(增加)시키나 수입(輸入)의 증대가 수출(輸出)의 증대보다 더 커서 국제수지(國際收支)는 악화된다. 또한 관세율(關稅率) 조정(調整)은 명목국민(名目國民) 총생산(總生産)을 증대시키고 물가(物價)를 하락(下落)시킨다. 수입(輸入)의 증가율이 큰 산업(産業)으로는 의복, 혁제품, 나무제품 산업(産業)을 들 수 있으며 수출(輸出)은 대부분의 산업(産業)에서 증가하나 특히 수입(輸入)된 원자재(原資材)를 많이 사용하는 비철금속 1차제품, 혁제품, 석탄제품, 고무제품산업의 수출증가율(輸出增加率)이 높다. 산업별생산(産業別生産)을 보면 혁제품, 비철금속 1차제품, 화학제품, 종이 지제품, 목제품 등 일부 수입경쟁산업(輸入競爭産業)에서는 생산(生産)이 감소(減少)되나 기타의 산업(産業)에서는 생산(生産)이 증가된다. 일반적으로 수출(輸出)의 비중이 높은 산업(産業)에서 생산(生産) 및 고용(雇傭)의 증가율이 높다.