An Estimation of Price Elasticities of Import Demand and Export Supply Functions Derived from an Integrated Production Model

생산모형(生産模型)을 이용(利用)한 수출(輸出)·수입함수(輸入函數)의 가격탄성치(價格彈性値) 추정(推定)

Using an aggregator model, we look into the possibilities for substitution between Korea's exports, imports, domestic sales and domestic inputs (particularly labor), and substitution between disaggregated export and import components. Our approach heavily draws on an economy-wide GNP function that is similar to Samuelson's, modeling trade functions as derived from an integrated production system. Under the condition of homotheticity and weak separability, the GNP function would facilitate consistent aggregation that retains certain properties of the production structure. It would also be useful for a two-stage optimization process that enables us to obtain not only the net output price elasticities of the first-level aggregator functions, but also those of the second-level individual components of exports and imports. For the implementation of the model, we apply the Symmetric Generalized McFadden (SGM) function developed by Diewert and Wales to both stages of estimation. The first stage of the estimation procedure is to estimate the unit quantity equations of the second-level exports and imports that comprise four components each. The parameter estimates obtained in the first stage are utilized in the derivation of instrumental variables for the aggregate export and import prices being employed in the upper model. In the second stage, the net output supply equations derived from the GNP function are used in the estimation of the price elasticities of the first-level variables: exports, imports, domestic sales and labor. With these estimates in hand, we can come up with various elasticities of both the net output supply functions and the individual components of exports and imports. At the aggregate level (first-level), exports appear to be substitutable with domestic sales, while labor is complementary with imports. An increase in the price of exports would reduce the amount of the domestic sales supply, and a decrease in the wage rate would boost the demand for imports. On the other hand, labor and imports are complementary with exports and domestic sales in the input-output structure. At the disaggregate level (second-level), the price elasticities of the export and import components obtained indicate that both substitution and complement possibilities exist between them. Although these elasticities are interesting in their own right, they would be more usefully applied as inputs to the computational general equilibrium model.

수출(輸出) 수입량(輸入量)이 여러 변수(變數)들에 의해서 동시적(同時的)으로 결정(決定)되는 경우 수출(輸出) 수입함수(輸入函數)를 독립적(獨立的)으로 추정(推定)하는 것보다는 이들을 다른 경제활동수준과 함께 동시적(同時的)으로 추정(推定)하는 것이 보다 바람직하다. 본고(本稿)에서는 이에 착안하여 생산모형(生産模型)에 근거한 수출(輸出) 수입함수(輸入函數)의 가격탄성치(價格彈性値)를 추정(推定)하였다. 생산모형(生産模型)에서 수출재(輸出財)는 생산부문(生産部門)의 산출물(産出物)로, 수입재(輸入財)는 투입물(投入物)로 상정(想定)되며 이러한 생산부문(生産部門)을 분석(分析)하고 모형화(模型化)하는 데 GNP함수(函數)가 사용된다. GNP함수(函數)에 약분리성(弱分離性) 제약(制約)이 가해지면 생산모형(生産模型)의 공급(供給) 수요체계(需要體系)에 관한 미시적 정보를 사용하여 이로부터 보다 세분(細分)된 수출(輸出) 수입항목별(輸入項目別) 가격탄성치(價格彈性値)를 도출할 수 있다. 본고(本稿)는 GNP함수(函數)가 약분리성(弱分離性)을 가질 때, 이단계극대화(二段階極大化) 과정(過程)을 통해서 얻을 수 있는 수출공급(輸出供給) 수입수요(輸入需要) 국내공급(國內供給) 노동수요(勞動需要)의 가격탄성치(價格彈性値)와 세분된 수출(輸出) 수입항목(輸入項目)의 가격탄성치(價格彈性値)를 추정하였다. 상부모형(上部模型)의 추정(推定)에서는 국내공급(國內供給)과 수출공급(輸出供給)은 서로 대체관계(代替關係), 수입수요(輸入需要)와 노동수요(勞動需要)는 보완관계(補完關係)에 있으며, 투입요소(投入要素)로서 노동(勞動)과 수입재(輸入財)는 각각 국내공급(國內供給) 및 수출공급(輸出供給)과 서로 보완관계(補完關係)에 있는 것으로 나타났다. 하부모형(下部模型)에서는 세분(細分)된 수출(輸出) 수입항목(輸入項目) 상호간에는 대체(代替) 보완관계(補完關係)가 동시에 나타나는 것으로 추정되었다.