Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers (대한산업공학회지)

Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers (대한산업공학회)
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Theoretical Basis of PERT Formula and a New Estimation Method

PERT 공식의 이론적 근거와 새로운 추정방법

  • 김세헌 (한국과학기술원 경영과학과) ;
  • 원유경 (한국과학기술원 경영과학과) ;
  • 채경철 (한국과학기술대학 경영과학과)
  • Published : 1989.12.31
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Abstract

PERT formulae for the mean and variance of activity time are near exact only over a short interval of the concentration parameter which is defined as the sum of the two shape parameters of the beta distribution. Aiming a better estimation of the mean and variance of activity time, we propose a method of subjectively estimating this concentration parameter via estimating the probability of completing the activity within a specified time interval.

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