Water for future (물과 미래)
- Volume 22 Issue 3
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- Pages.331-339
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- 1989
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- 1738-9488(pISSN)
Stochastic Forecasting of Monthly River Flwos by Multiplicative ARIMA Model
Multiplicative ARIMA 모형에 의한 월유량의 추계학적 모의 예측
Abstract
The monthly flows with periodicity and trend were forecasted by multiplicative ARIMA model and then the applicability of the model was tested based on 23 years of the historical monthly flow data at Jindong river stage gauging station in the Nakdong River Basin. The parameter estimation was made with 21 years of data and the remaining two years of monthly data were used to compare the forecasted flows by ARIMA (2,0,0)
추계학적 모형 중의 하나인 Multiplicative ARIMA 모형을 사용하여 주기성과 경향성을 가지는 월유량계열을 예측하였으며 그 모형의 적합성은 낙동강 유역의 진동 수위 관측 지점에서의 23년간의 월 유량자료를 사용하여 검정하였다. 최종적으로 산정된 ARIMA (2,0,0)
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