월유출량에 대한 Run-Length의 해석

Analysis of Surplus and Dficit-using Runs for Monthly Streamflow

본 연구에서는 낙동강, 한강 및 금강의 중요관측지점의 월평균 유출량을 분석에 사용하였으며, 먼저 일정유량(Truncation level) 별로 Run-length와 Run-sum에 대한 2-변수 Gamma 분포 및 대수정규분포의 적합성 여부를 검토하였던 바 Gamma 모델이 적합한 것으로 판명된 자료와 실측치와 비교하였다. 그리고 Run-length 및 Run-sum에 대한 일정유량별로 평균치의 변화에 대한 성질을 구명하였다.

In the analysis, monthly streamflow records atthe gauging station in Nakdong, Han and Geum river were used. Also, the fitness of monthly streamflow to Gamma and Long-normal distribution was tested by Kolomogorv-Smirnov test. The results obtained in this study can be summarized as follws (1) The fitness of monthly streamflow to two-parameter Gamma distribution was tested by Kolomorov-Smirnov test, which fits well to this Gamma distribution (2) The Run-length and Run-sum were simulated by the Gamma model. In this result, run-length and Run-sum of monthly streamflow were fit for Gamma model (3) The mean decreases (increases) the expected surplus (deficit) Run-Sum of the monthly streamflow. The higher the truncation level of negative Run-length and Run-sum the larger is the effect of mean.