A Study on the Probabilistic Prediction of Typhoons Approaching the Korean-Peninsula

한반도에 대한 태풍내습확률 산정에 관한 연구

An attempt is made to present a method of prediction for typhoons apporaching the Korean-peninsula. The method is based upon the Bayesian theorem to improve the observed (prior) probabilities of typhoons approaching the Korean sea area incorporating conditional probability. A total of 248 typhoons is collected and analyzed to establish prior probability and conditional probability according to the defined procedure. The typhoons used are those which encompassed the western Pacific area to which the Korean-peninsula is subjected. The results of examplary computations suggest that the presented method is promising for predicting approaching typhoons.