Empirical Study on the Mode Choice Behavior of Travelers by Express Bus and Express Train

특급(特急)과 고속(高速)버스 이용자(利用者)의 수단선정행태(手段選定行態)에 관한 경험적(經驗的) 연구(研究)

The purposes of this study are to analyze/model the mode choice behavior of the regional traveler by express bus/express train and to offer useful source in deciding the public transportation policy. The data analyzed were trips of both modes from March, 1980 to November, 1981, between Seoul and other nineteen cities; the data were grouped as five groups according to the change of service variables. Service variables were travel time(unit: minute), cost(:won), average allocation time(:won), service hour(:hour), and dummy variables by mode. As model Logit Model with linear or log utility function were postulated. As the result of this study, some reseanable models were constructed at Model Type I(eq. 2. of this paper) based on the above data except the dummy. It was judged that the parameters calibrated by Group III and Group IV data in table 4, were optimal. Among the parameters, the parameter of travel cost was most reliable. There was a tendency preferring express bus to train in October and November. With the constructed model and Pivot-Point Method. the demand change of express train caused by the service variables' change could be forecasted over 99%.

본(本) 연구(硏究)의 목적(木賊)은 특급(特急)과 고속(高速)버스 이용자(利用者)의 수단선정행태(手段選定行態)(mode choice behavior)를 분석(分析)하고 모형(模型)을 개발(開發)하여 교통정책결정(交通政策決定)의 자료(資料)를 제공(提供)하는데 있다. 기본자료(基本資料)로는 1980년(年) 3월(月)부터 1981년(年) 11월(月)까지의 서울과 지방(地方) 19개도시간(個都市間) 수단별(手段別) 수송실험(輸送實驗)이 수집(收集)되었으며, 여행시간(旅行時間), 여행비용(旅行費用), 평균배차간격(平均配車間隔), 1일운행시간(日運行時間), 수단별(手段別) 가변수(假變數)를 변수(變數)로 하고 선형(線形) 및 대수효용함수(對數効用函數)를 이용(利用)한 Logit모형(模型)에 의하여 분석(分析)되었다. 본(本) 연구(硏究)의 결과(結果), 본문(本文) 식(式) 2.의 Type I 모형(模型)에서 가장 좋은 결과(結果)를 얻었으며, Group III, IV의 매개상수(媒介常數)가 최적(最適)으로 판단(判斷)된다. 추정(推定)된 매개상수(媒介常數)중 "${\beta}$"의 값이 가장 신뢰(信賴)할 수 있었으며, 10, 11월(月)에는 특급(特急)보다 고속(高速)버스를 선호(選好)하였다.