Estimation of a Cyclic or Acyclic Network System Reliability and MTTF by the Monte-Carlo Simulation Method

Monte-Carlo Simulation방법(方法)에 의한 복잡한 System의 신뢰성(信賴性)과 평균수명(平均壽命) 추정(推定)

This paper estimates the reliability & mean time to failure (MTIF) of a cyclic or acyclic network system by the Monte-Carlo simulation method. Estimates of MTTF and Reliability become difficult as the complexity of a system increases. The method in this paper finds all simple paths from the given network, and then simulates the reliability of the required time and MTFF by using these paths. Life-times of the components in a network follow some probability distributions (Exponential, Weibull, Normal, Lognormal, etc.). The method, written in Level II. Basic Language, is validated for some simple examples and then estimates the reliability and MTFF of some cyclic network system.