A Study of the System Reliability Prediction in the New-Product Design Stage

신제품(新製品)설계(設計)단계(段階)에 있어서 「시스템」의 신뢰도(信賴度) 예측(豫測)에 관한 연구(硏究)

The higher develops the industrial techniques, the more reliability of mac hi nary, equipments and systems want the consumers. So, it is a key to succeed in the new-product development that the consumers can put reliance on the product to be made in the product design stage. This study intends to help the product designer and the system manager by presenting them better reliability prediction techniques. For this purpose, the author built some fundamental reliability system models. And then predict the system reliability by estimating the elemental component's failure rate ${\lambda}_i$, and proposed an evaluation model. And also, a system is wrong according to the component's characteristics' degradation, we must estimate the degradation failure rate (average and standard deviation). For this, the "Moment method" is used.