Sensititivity Analysis For Development Of Gulf Of Alaska

It was attempted to analyze the sensitivity of the oil prospect place named MARIA which placed inside Gulf of Alaska. For the analysis, P6031090, ECOANA( computer) which installed in the head office, Shell Oil Co was used and the data needed for computer programming were 1) Unit of Production data 2) Production Schedule 3) Total Gross Yearly Expenses and 4) Total Gross Capital and so on. The important data among the computer output 1) PVPAT (Present Value After Tax): $1,167,077,500 2) Payout After Tax: 3.14 Years (256,284,810 BBL Production) 3) Earning Power: 42% (After Tax) 4) PVPAT/BBL : $1.22 5) Capital/BBL : $2.00. On the other hand, the effect acted upon PVPAT with varying the Platform cost, Facility cost, Pipeline cost and Well cost was observed in comparion with the basic for range from 50% to 200%. Resultantly, the order was 1) Pipeline cost 2) Facility cost 3) Well cost 4) Platform cost for range form 100% to 200%. This project was completed by the contract with Shell Oil Co., and the geological data needed for this analysis were given by the head office and the development project started from Jan. 1976.