International conference on construction engineering and project management (국제학술발표논문집)

  • 2024.07a
  • /
  • Pages.127-136
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  • 2024
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  • 2508-9048(eISSN)
Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
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Integrative Assessment of High-Speed Railway System Vulnerability to Future Climate-Induced Flooding in China

  • Hengliang Wu (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University) ;
  • Bingsheng Liu (School of Public Policy and Administration, Chongqing University) ;
  • Jingke Hong (School of Management Science and Real Estate, Chongqing University) ;
  • Yifei Wang (School of Management Science and Real Estate, Chongqing University)
  • Published : 2024.07.29
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Abstract

Flooding presents a significant threat to infrastructure, and climate change is exacerbating these risks. High-speed rail (HSR) infrastructure, designed based on historical data, may struggle to cope with future extreme flood events. Infrastructure stakeholders require forecasting capabilities to predict the intensity and frequency of future floods so they can develop adaptive strategies to mitigate flood risks and impacts. Floods can cause significant damage to HSR infrastructure networks, disrupting their operations. Traditional network theory-based frameworks are insufficient for analyzing the three-dimensional effects of floods on HSR networks. To address this issue, this study proposes a comprehensive approach to assess flood risk and vulnerability under future climate scenarios for HSR networks. The method consists of three components. (i) Generate flood inundation data by utilizing global climate models, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs), and the CaMa-Flood model. (ii) Fit extreme flood depths to the Gumbel distribution to generate flood inundation scenarios. (iii) Overlay flood scenarios on the HSR network and quantitatively assess network vulnerability based on topology network. When applied to the HSR system in mainland China, the results indicate that flood severity does not necessarily increase under higher SSPs, but may worsen over time. The minimum flood return period that causes HSR disruptions is decreasing, with Hubei Province showing a significant increase in HSR segment failure probability. Discontinuous phase transitions in HSR network topology metrics suggest potential nationwide collapses under future infrequent floods. These findings can inform preventive measures for the HSR sector and flood-resistant standards for HSR infrastructure. The method used in this study can be extended to analyze the vulnerability of other transportation systems to natural disasters, serving as a quantitative tool for improving resilience in a changing climate.

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References

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