Risk Analysis on Offshore Windfarm Industry in South Korea: Based on the Jeonnam Offshore Windfarm Project

  • Kim, Tae Hyun (Department of Convergence Engineering for Future Cities, Sunkyunkwan University) ;
  • Kim, Yea-Sang (Department of Convergence Engineering for Future Cities, Sunkyunkwan University) ;
  • Chin, Sangyoon (Department of Convergence Engineering for Future Cities, Sunkyunkwan University) ;
  • Pallesen, Kristian (Copenhagen Offshore Partners)
  • Published : 2022.06.20

Abstract

Recently, the Korean government has been actively promoting the smart city as their strategic agenda. However, to build smart cities that are greener, the authors believe it is essential to rapidly transit conventional energy sources such as fossil fuels to renewable energy. Although there is a big potential for Offshore wind in Korea, there has not been a full-scale commercial offshore wind farm until today. Since Korea is relatively a new market compared to the EU, it can be risky for developers. The authors will introduce risk management best practices in the offshore wind industry applicable to the Korean environment. This paper will mainly introduce an offshore wind project size of 99 MW. The project is expecting a Finance Close (FC) in Q3 2022, so the project team has prepared a risk register with over 150 risks and levers throughout the project lifecycle. Overall risks include risks with Development Expenditure (DEVEX) impact, a Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) impact, and an Operating Expenditure (OPEX) impact. Based on the identified risks, a more qualitative assessment of Cost and Schedule Impact was conducted. In conclusion, a Monte Carlo simulation was performed to propose a quantitative risk assessment to evaluate a benchmark contingency of the project cost.

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Acknowledgement

This work is financially supported by the Korean Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport (MOLIT) as an Innovative Talent Education Program for Smart City. This research was supported by the MOTIE (Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy) in Korea, under the Fostering Global Talents for Innovative Growth Program related to Robotics(P0008749) supervised by the Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology (KIAT).