Simulation and Analysis of Wildfire for Disaster Planning and Management

With climate change and the global population growth, the frequency and scope of wildfires are constantly increasing, which threatened people's lives and property. For example, according to California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, in 2020, a total of 9,917 incidents related to wildfires were reported in California, with an estimated burned area of 4,257,863 acres, resulting in 33 fatalities and 10,488 structures damaged or destroyed. At the same time, the ongoing development of technology provides new tools to simulate and analyze the spread of wildfires. How to use new technology to reduce the losses caused by wildfire is an important research topic. A potentially feasible strategy is to simulate and analyze the spread of wildfires through computing technology to explore the impact of different factors (such as weather, terrain, etc.) on the spread of wildfires, figure out how to take preemptive/responsive measures to minimize potential losses caused by wildfires, and as a result achieve better management support of wildfires. In preparation for pursuing these goals, the authors used a powerful computing framework, Spark, developed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), to study the effects of different weather factors (wind speed, wind direction, air temperature, and relative humidity) on the spread of wildfires. The test results showed that wind is a key factor in determining the spread of wildfires. A stable weather condition (stable wind and air conditions) is beneficial to limit the spread of wildfires. Joint consideration of weather factors and environmental obstacles can help limit the threat of wildfires.