Monte Carlo Simulation of Plasma Caffeine Concentrations by Using Population Pharmacokinetic Model

Caffeine has a long history of human consumption but the consumption of caffeine due to caffeinated energy drinks(CEDs) is rapidly growing. Marketing targets of CED sales are children, adolescents and young adults, possibly caffeine-sensitive groups and its effect for them can be significantly different from healthy adults. Caffeine-related toxicities among these groups are growing in number and a number of countries are recognizing severity of caffeine toxicities. Previous research showed prediction of maximal plasma caffeine concentration profiles after the single CED ingestion and the primary aim of this study is to visually predict plasma caffeine concentration after the single and multiple ingestion of standard servings of CED. Based on the population pharmacokinetic model using Monte Carlo simulation, prediction of caffeine concentration leading to caffeine intoxication in the sensitive groups is quantitatively presented and visualized. This research also broadens the perspective by creating and utilizing diverse open science tools including R package, Edison Science App and Shiny apps.