Application of Deep Learning to the Forecast of Flare Classification and Occurrence using SOHO MDI data

A Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) is one of the well-known deep-learning methods in image processing and computer vision area. In this study, we apply CNN to two kinds of flare forecasting models: flare classification and occurrence. For this, we consider several pre-trained models (e.g., AlexNet, GoogLeNet, and ResNet) and customize them by changing several options such as the number of layers, activation function, and optimizer. Our inputs are the same number of SOHO)/MDI images for each flare class (None, C, M and X) at 00:00 UT from Jan 1996 to Dec 2010 (total 1600 images). Outputs are the results of daily flare forecasting for flare class and occurrence. We build, train, and test the models on TensorFlow, which is well-known machine learning software library developed by Google. Our major results from this study are as follows. First, most of the models have accuracies more than 0.7. Second, ResNet developed by Microsoft has the best accuracies : 0.77 for flare classification and 0.83 for flare occurrence. Third, the accuracies of these models vary greatly with changing parameters. We discuss several possibilities to improve the models.