A Stochastic Linear Scheduling Method using Monte Carlo Simulation

The linear scheduling method or line-of-balance (LOB) is a popular choice for projects that involve repetitive tasks during project execution. The method, however, produces deterministic schedule that does not convey a range of potential project outcomes under uncertainty. This results from the fact the basic scheduling parameters such as crew production rates are estimated to be deterministic based on single-point value inputs. The current linear scheduling technique, therefore, lacks the capability of reflecting the fluctuating nature of the project operation. In this paper the authors address the issue of how the variability of operation and production rates affects schedule outcomes and show a more realistic description of what might be a realistic picture of typical projects. The authors provide a solution by providing a more effective and comprehensive way of incorporating the crew performance variability using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The simulation outcomes are discussed in terms of how this stochastic approach can overcome the shortcomings of the conventional linear scheduling technique and provide optimum schedule solutions.