한국철도학회:학술대회논문집 (Proceedings of the KSR Conference)
- 한국철도학회 2011년도 정기총회 및 추계학술대회 논문집
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- Pages.1715-1721
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- 2011
개입 ARIMA 모형을 이용한 KTX 수요예측
Forecasting the KTX Passenger Demand with Intervention ARIMA Model
초록
For an efficient railroad operations the demand forecasting is required. Time series models can quickly forecast the future demand with fewer data. As well as the accuracy of forecasting is excellent compared to other methods. In this study is proposed the intervention ARIMA model for forecasting methods of KTX passenger demand. The intervention ARIMA model may reflect the intervention such as the Kyongbu high-speed rail project second phase. The simple seasonal ARIMA model is predicted to overestimate the KTX passenger demand. However, intervention ARIMA model is predicted the reasonable results. The KTX passenger demands were predicted to be a week units separated by the weekday and weekend.
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