한국주거학회:학술대회논문집 (Proceeding of Spring/Autumn Annual Conference of KHA)
- 한국주거학회 2011년도 춘계학술발표대회 논문집
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- Pages.285-289
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- 2011
부동산 정책에 따른 서울시 아파트 가격지수 변화방향에 대한 연구
Effects of Real Estate Policy on Apartment Price Index in Seoul
초록
he purpose of this study is to assess the effects of real estate policy on apartment price index in Seoul. To meet the research goal, this research reviewed real estate policy of the government from January of 1986 to August of 2010, and then it collected monthly apartment price index in 25 local districts of Seoul from January of 2003 to August of 2010. After 25 districts were grouped into 2 areas (14 districts in Gangnam and 11 districts in Gangbuk), the data of two areas were analyzed by using the SAS program, Cluster analysis with Ward method showed 3 clusters on each area, and with 6 clusters in total, the effects of real estate policy in the period were examined by using residual analysis. The analysis indicated two major shocks (one was from May to October of 2003, and the other was from March of 2006 to January of 2007), and the results showed that the intervention of government in the market had the asymmetric effects in bullish and bearish times. It implies that the market volatility is substantially influenced by irrational sentiments. Thus, it's suggested to devise the consumer sentiment index suitable in real estate market.
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