Construction of Korean Space Weather Prediction Center: Storm Prediction Model

  • Kim, R.S. (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute) ;
  • Cho, K.S. (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute) ;
  • Moon, Y.J. (KyungHee University) ;
  • Yi, Yu (Chungnam National University) ;
  • Choi, S.H. (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute) ;
  • Baek, J.H. (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute) ;
  • Park, Y.D. (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute)
  • Published : 2008.10.22

Abstract

Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) is developing an empirical model for Korean Space Weather Prediction Center (KSWPC). This model predicts the geomagnetic storm strength (Dst minimum) by using only CME parameters, such as the source location (L), speed (V), earthward direction (D), and magnetic field orientation of an overlaying potential field at CME source region. To derive an empirical formula, we considered that (1) the direction parameter has best correlation with the storm strength (2) west $15^{\circ}$ offset from the central meridian gives best correlation between the source location and the storm strength (3) consideration of two groups of CMEs according to their magnetic field orientation (southward or northward) provide better forecast. In this talk, we introduce current status of the empirical storm prediction model development.

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