Correlation Analysis between Global Warming Index and Its Two Main Causes (space weather and green house effects) from 1868 to 2005

We have examined the relative contributions of representative space weather proxies (geomagnetic aa index) to global warming (Global temperature anomaly) and compared them with that of green house effect characterized CO2 content from 1868 to 2005. For this we used Hadcrut3 temperature anomaly (Ta) data, aa index taken at two anti-podal subauroral stations (Canberra Australia and hartland England), and the CO2 data come from historical ice core records. From the comparison between Ta and aa index, we found several interesting results: (1) the linear correlation coefficient between two parameters increases until 1990 and then decreases rapidly, and (2) the scattered plots between two parameters shows different patterns before and after 1990. A partial correlation of Ta and two quantities (aa, CO2) also shows that the geomagnetic effect (aa index) is dominant until about 1990 and the CO2 effect becomes much more important after then. These results imply that the green house effect become very important since at least 1990. For a further analysis, we simply assume that Ta (total) = Ta (aa) + Ta (CO2) and made a linear regression between Ta and aa index from 1868 to 1990. A linear model is then made from the linear regression between energy consumption (a proxy of CO2 effect) and Ta (total) - Ta (aa) since 1990. This linear model makes it possible to predict the temperature anomaly in 2030, about 1 degree higher than the present temperature, which is much larger than in the previous century.