Analysis of food availability and food security status in Nepal for forest resource conservation purpose

Agriculture and forest are basis for livelihood in Nepal while both sectors constitute around 40 percent of the national product and over two-thirds of the economically active population is dependent on agriculture. However, radical changes in land use, depletion in crops production and food availability are major threats due to loss of soil fertilityand severe environmental degradation. In this study, we used time series data from 1986/87 to 2005/06 about food crop production and population published by Government of Nepal, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives and Central Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive statistics and ArcGIS were used to assess and map the food security status of Nepalese Terai based on the local food demand and supply system. Food supply to demand ratio(FSDR) was the main idea of assessment. Our results showed that out of 20 districts, only 8 districts were categorised under secured food districts whereas 5 districts were still under food unsecured situation. The analysis further revealed that 7 districts had faced food deficit more than 8-16 times during the last 20 year periods. Data further showed that there was surplus food supply relative to the requirements dictated by FSDR. However, the average FSDR was less than 1.2(less than 20% surplus) exploring fact that most of the districts were not producing sufficient food to cope up the food shock and after 1995 it was relatively stagnant. Our prediction reveals that food supply in Terai even in the future would remain at almost the same level as now, and there will not more than 16-17% surplus by 2021 considering medium vibrant population growth. The findings thus, indicate that Terai may not be a food secure region in the future, even though the region is considered as a food storage house of Nepal. In addition, this paper suggests ways to make future comprehensive case studies more widely comparable in Terai, Nepal.