Fuzzy GMDH-type Model and Its Application to Financial Demand Forecasting for the Educational Expenses

In this paper, we developed the fuzzy group method data handling-type (GMDH) Model and applied it to demand forecasting of educational expenses. At present, GMDH family of modeling algorithms discovers the structure of empirical models and it gives only the way to get the most accurate identification and demand forecasts in case of noised and short input sampling. In distinction to fuzzy system, the results are explicit mathematical models, obtained in a relative short time. In this paper, an adaptive learning network is proposed as a kind of fuzzy GMDH. The proposed method can be reinterpreted as a multi-stage fuzzy decision rule which is called as the fuzzy GMDH. The fuzzy GMDH-type networks have several advantages compared with conventional multi-layered GMDH models. Therefore, many types of nonlinear systems can be automatically modeled by using the fuzzy GMDH. A computer program is developed and successful applications are shown in the field of demand forecasting problem of educational expenses with the number of factors considered.