Recent Progress of Freak Wave Prediction

Based on a weakly non-Gaussian theory the occurrence probability of freak waves is formulated in terms of the number of waves in a time series and the surface elevation kurtosis. Finite kurtosis gives rise to a significant enhancement of freak wave generation in comparison with the linear narrow banded wave theory. For fixed number of waves, the estimated amplification ratio of freak wave occurrence due to the deviation from the Gaussian theory is 50% - 300%. The results of the theory are compared with laboratory and field data.