산사태 발생예측을 위한 확률모델

A Probabilistic Model for Landslide Prediction

In this study, a probabilistic prediction model for debris flow occurrence was developed using a logistic regression analysis. The model can be applicable to metamorphic rocks and granite area. In order to develop the prediction model, detailed field survey and laboratory soil tests were conducted both in the northern and the southern Gyeonggi province and in Sangju, Gyeongbuk province, Korea. The six landslide triggering factors were selected by a logistic regression analysis as well as several basic statistical analyses. The six factors consist of two topographic factors and four geological and geotechnical factors. The model assigns a weight value to each selected factor. The verification results reveal that the model has 86.5% of prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is possible to predict landslide occurrence in a probabilistic and quantitative manner.