Development a Estimate Model of Migration Using Cohort-Survival Model

집단 생잔 모형을 이용한 인구이동모델 개발

The purpose of this study is to develop a estimation model of migration with only population data using the cohort-survival model which has been used for forecasting future population. The fluctuation of population can be bisected to the natural change which can be occurred by birth and death and the social change which means migration. The factors of the social change are usually very important for establishing rural policies. However, researches using migration data has limitations because the usage of them are restricted. For verifying a estimation model of migration, comparing estimated population in 2000 year and migration quantity between 1996 and 2000 of 25 gu with real values, using population data and death ratio from 1995 to 2000 of the 25 gu in Seoul. Result shows a reliable data that R-square of forecating population model is 0.9755 and migration is 0.9180. So these model are worth to estimate a population and migration quantity to restricted migration data.