Probabilistic Evaluation of RV Integrity Under Pressurized Thermal Shock

가압열충격을 받는 원자로용기의 확률론적 건전성 평가

The probabilistic fracture analysis is used to determine the effects of uncertainties involved in material properties, location and size of flaws, etc, which can not be addressed using a deterministic approach. In this paper the probabilistic fracture analysis is applied for evaluating the RV(Reactor Vessel) under PTS(Pressurised Thermal Shock). A semi-elliptical axial crack is assumed in the inside surface of RV. The selected random parameters are initial crack depth, neutron fluence, chemical composition of material (copper, nickel and phosphorous) and $RT_{NDT}$. The deterministically calculated $K_I$ and crack tip temperature are used for the probabilistic calculation. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the crack initiation probability for fixed flaw and PNNL(Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) flaw distribution is calculated. As the results show initiation probability of fixed flaw is much higher than that of PNNL distribution, the postulated crack sizes of 1/10t in this paper and 1/4t of ASME are evaluated to be very conservative.