마루높이 설정을 위한 월파확률의 신뢰성 해석

Reliability Analysis of the Expected Overtopping Probability of Rubble Mound Breakwater

The reliability analysis of overtopping probability is proposed. In order to estimate the expected overtopping probability of the rubble mound breakwater, the experimental results of individual wave runup height is applied for the analysis of irregular wave system. The joint distribution of wave heights and periods is used for the input data of runup calculation because the runup height depends on the wave height and period. The runup heights during the one event that the design wave attacks the rubble mound breakwater extend to the one life cycle of 60 years. Utilizing the Monte-Carlo method, the one life cycle is tried more about 60 times for obtaining the expected value of overtopping probability. It is found that the inclusion of the variability of wave tidal and wave steepness has great influence on the computation of the expected overtopping probability of rubble mound breakwater. The previous design disregarding the tidal fluctuation largely overestimates or underestimates the expected overtopping probability depending on tidal range and wave steepness.