Development of Probabilistic Risk Analysis Model on Railroad System - Its Application to Tunnel Fire Risk Analysis

철도시스템의 확률론적 위험평가 모델 개발 연구 - 터널화재 위험도 평가에의 적용

  • 곽상록 (한국철도기술연구원 안전체계 연구그룹) ;
  • 왕종배 (한국철도기술연구원 안전체계 연구그룹) ;
  • 홍선호 (한국철도기술연구원 안전체계 연구그룹) ;
  • 김상암 (한국철도기술연구원 안전체계 연구그룹)
  • Published : 2003.10.01

Abstract

Though the probability of tunnel fire accident is very low, but critical fatalities are expected when it occurred. In this study the effect of critical safety parameters on tunnel fire accident are examined using probabilistic technique. Fire detection time, smoke spread velocity, passenger escape velocity, flash-over time, and emergency service arrival time are considered. In order to estimate the uncertainties of input parameters Monte Carlo simulation are used, and fatalities for each assumed accident scenarios are obtained as results. For the efficiency of iterative calculation PRA(Probabilistic Risk Analysis) code is developed in this study. As a result fire detection have large effect.

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