수질 자료에 대한 ARIMA 모형 적용(지역환경 \circled2)

ARIMA Modeling for Monthly Oxygen Demand Data

A multiplicative ARIMA model was tested and applied to analyze the periodicity and trends of 168 monthly oxygen demand data from the Noryanggin water quality gauging station in the downstream Han River. ARIMA model was identified to fit to the data using ACF and PACF tests, and the parameters estimated using an unconditional least square method. The residuals between the observed and forecasted data were acceptable with the Porte-Manteau test. A forecast of DO changes was made for its applications.