Real-time Flood Forecasting Model for Irrigation Reservoir Using Simplex Method

최적화기법을 이용한 관개저수지의 실시간 홍수예측모형(수공)

The basic concept of the model is minimizing the error range between forecasted flood inflow and actual flood inflow, and accurately forecasting the flood discharge some hours in advance depending on the concentration time(Tc) and soil moisture retention storage(Sa). Simplex method that is a multi-level optimization technique was used to search for the determination of the best parameters of RETFLO (REal-Time FLOod forecasting)model. The flood forecasting model developed was applied to several strom events of Yedang reservoir during past 10 years. Model perfomance was very good with relative errors of 10% for comparison of total runoff volume and with one hour delayed peak time.