신경망이론을 이용한 소유역에서의 장기 유출 해석(수공)

Long Term Streamflow Forecasting in Small Watershed using Artificial Neural Network

A artificial neural network model was developed to analyze and forecast the flow fluctuation at small streams in the Balan watershed. Backpropagation neural networks were found to perform very well in forecasting daily streamflows. In order to deal with slow convergence and an appropriate structure, two algorithms were proposed for speeding up the convergence of the backpropagation method, and the Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC) was proposed for obtaining the optimal number of hidden nodes. From simulations using daily flows at the HS#3 watershed of the Balan Watershed Project, which is 412,5 ㏊ in size and relatively steep in landscape, it was found that those algorithms perform satisfactorily.