한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집 (Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference)
- 한국지능정보시스템학회 2000년도 춘계정기학술대회 e-Business를 위한 지능형 정보기술 / 한국지능정보시스템학회
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- Pages.235-241
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- 2000
An Integrated Approach Using Change-Point Detection and Artificial neural Networks for Interest Rates Forecasting
- Oh, Kyong-Joo (Graduate School of Management, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology) ;
- Ingoo Han (Graduate School of Management, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology)
- 발행 : 2000.04.01
초록
This article suggests integrated neural network models for the interest rate forecasting using change point detection. The basic concept of proposed model is to obtain intervals divided by change point, to identify them as change-point groups, and to involve them in interest rate forecasting. the proposed models consist of three stages. The first stage is to detect successive change points in interest rate dataset. The second stage is to forecast change-point group with data mining classifiers. The final stage is to forecast the desired output with BPN. Based on this structure, we propose three integrated neural network models in terms of data mining classifier: (1) multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA)-supported neural network model, (2) case based reasoning (CBR)-supported neural network model and (3) backpropagation neural networks (BPN)-supported neural network model. Subsequently, we compare these models with a neural networks (BPN)-supported neural network model. Subsequently, we compare these models with a neural network model alone and, in addition, determine which of three classifiers (MDA, CBR and BPN) can perform better. This article is then to examine the predictability of integrated neural network models for interest rate forecasting using change-point detection.
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