설문조사를 통한 신규 통신서비스의 수요예측 방안

In this paper, as a forecasting method, the market survey for forecasting demand is introduced for the estimation of subscriber line demand in the optical access networks. The market survey method for the new multimedia services is attempted to collect information directly from customers using the questionnaires for home-users and business-users in local loops. Analysis rationale of questionnaires is suggested to estimate the number of subscriber lines. Also, two measures are presented to quantify the credibility on survey responses; one is the probability that the customer will use the multimedia services and the other is the rate that the subscriber line demand will be actually realized. The former measure is calculated based on the information on customers and the Logit analysis. The latter is obtained by the degree of customer's knowledge about specific services and the customer's willingness to use the services. Based on the values of two measures, the number of subscriber line demand can be developed for installing the optical access networks.