신경망이론을 이용한 강우예측모형의 개발

Development of Rainfall Forecastion Model Using a Neural Network

Rainfall is one of the major and complicated elements of hydrologic system. Accurate prediction of rainfall is very important to mitigate storm damage. The neural network is a good model to be applied for the classification problem, large combinatorial optimization and nonlinear mapping. In this dissertation, rainfall predictions by the neural network theory were presented. A multi-layer neural network was constructed. The network learned continuous-valued input and output data. The network was used to predict rainfall. The online, multivariate, short term rainfall prediction is possible by means of the developed model. A multidimensional rainfall generation model is applied to Seoul metropolitan area in order to generate the 10-minute rainfall. Application of neural network to the generated rainfall shows good prediction. Also application of neural network to 1-hour real data in Seoul metropolitan area shows slightly good predictions.