• Title, Summary, Keyword: logistic curve

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Study on Demand Estimation of Agricultural Machinery by Using Logistic Curve Function and Markov Chain Model (로지스틱함수법 및 Markov 전이모형법을 이용한 농업기계의 수요예측에 관한 연구)

  • Yun Y. D.
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.441-450
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    • 2004
  • This study was performed to estimate mid and long term demands of a tractor, a rice transplanter, a combine and a grain dryer by using logistic curve function and Markov chain model. Field survey was done to decide some parameters far logistic curve function and Markov chain model. Ceiling values of tractor and combine fer logistic curve function analysis were 209,280 and 85,607 respectively. Based on logistic curve function analysis, total number of tractors increased slightly during the period analysed. New demand for combine was found to be zero. Markov chain analysis was carried out with 2 scenarios. With the scenario 1(rice price $10\%$ down and current supporting policy by government), new demand for tractor was decreased gradually up to 700 unit in the year 2012. For combine, new demand was zero. Regardless of scenarios, the replacement demand was increased slightly after 2003. After then, the replacement demand is decreased after the certain time. Two analysis of logistic owe function and Markov chain model showed the similar trend in increase and decrease for total number of tractors and combines. However, the difference in numbers of tractors and combines between the results from 2 analysis got bigger as the time passed.

Stand Density Management Studies on Pine Stands in Korea (I) - The Simple Logistic Growth Curve and Its Application to Pine Stands - (소나무림(林)의 밀도관리(密度管理)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)(I) - 단순(單純) logistic 곡선(曲線)과 소나무림(林)에 대한 그의 적용(適用) -)

  • Kwon, O Bok;Lee, Heung Kyun;Woo, Chong Chun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 1982
  • The simple logistic growth model on the logistic curve, being originally a kind of population growth curve has also been sometimes utilized to describe growth curves in herbaceous plants such as duckweed and sun-flowers. It has already been recognized that the agreement between the theoretical calculations and the empirical observations is quite satisfactory form a practical point of view. It remains, however, still doubtful whether the logistic curve could be applied to the growth or ordinary woody plants which is quite different in its character from that of herbaceous plants. In this study, the simple logistic model, being a basic tool of stand density management, is applied to yield data from pine stands in order to test the adequacy of the model An attempt of testing the significance of the fit is made by applying the Chi-square test.

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Estimation of Asymmetric Bell Shaped Probability Curve using Logistic Regression (로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 비대칭 종형 확률곡선의 추정)

  • 박성현;김기호;이소형
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2001
  • Logistic regression model is one of the most popular linear models for a binary response variable and used for the estimation of probability function. In many practical situations, the probability function can be expressed by a bell shaped curve and such a function can be estimated by a second order logistic regression model. However, when the probability curve is asymmetric, the estimation results using a second order logistic regression model may not be precise because a second order logistic regression model is a symmetric function. In addition, even if a second order logistic regression model is used, the interpretation for the effect of second order term may not be easy. In this paper, in order to alleviate such problems, an estimation method for asymmetric probabiity curve based on a first order logistic regression model and iterative bi-section method is proposed and its performance is compared with that of a second order logistic regression model by a simulation study.

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A Study on the Optimal Release Time Decision of a Developed Software by using Logistic Testing Effort Function (로지스틱 테스트 노력함수를 이용한 소프트웨어의 최적인도시기 결정에 관한 연구)

  • Che, Gyu-Shik;Kim, Yong-Kyung
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2005
  • This paper proposes a software-reliability growth model incoporating the amount of testing effort expended during the software testing phase after developing it. The time-dependent behavior of testing effort expenditures is described by a Logistic curve. Assuming that the error detection rate to the amount of testing effort spent during the testing phase is proportional to the current error content, a software-reliability growth model is formulated by a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Using this model the method of data analysis for software reliability measurement is developed. After defining a software reliability, This paper discusses the relations between testing time and reliability and between duration following failure fixing and reliability are studied. SRGM in several literatures has used the exponential curve, Railleigh curve or Weibull curve as an amount of testing effort during software testing phase. However, it might not be appropriate to represent the consumption curve for testing effort by one of already proposed curves in some software development environments. Therefore, this paper shows that a logistic testing-effort function can be adequately expressed as a software development/testing effort curve and that it gives a good predictive capability based on real failure data.

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On the estimation of parameters for the growth curve of the Korean Population (한국의 인구곡선 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 구자흥
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.249-261
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    • 1994
  • The purpose of this research is to obtain a Simple Logistic Curve for the curve fitting of Korean total Population. Based on the population census data from 1949 to 1990, the parameters are estimated by 3-group method. As the results, intercensal populations of Korea from 1950 to 190 are estimated, and Korean total populations from 1991 to 2010 A.D. are projected. And we also can suggest the upper asymptote 58, 616 thousands of Korean total population.

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Comparison of Regression Models for Estimating Ventilation Rate of Mechanically Ventilated Swine Farm (강제환기식 돈사의 환기량 추정을 위한 회귀모델의 비교)

  • Jo, Gwanggon;Ha, Taehwan;Yoon, Sanghoo;Jang, Yuna;Jung, Minwoong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.1
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2020
  • To estimate the ventilation volume of mechanically ventilated swine farms, various regression models were applied, and errors were compared to select the regression model that can best simulate actual data. Linear regression, linear spline, polynomial regression (degrees 2 and 3), logistic curve, generalized additive model (GAM), and gompertz curve were compared. Overfitting models were excluded even when the error rate was small. The evaluation criteria were root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The evaluation results indicated that degree 3 exhibited the lowest error rate; however, an overestimation contradiction was observed in a certain section. The logistic curve was the most stable and superior to all the models. In the estimation of ventilation volume by all of the models, the estimated ventilation volume of the logistic curve was the smallest except for the model with a large error rate and the overestimated model.

Cohort Analysis of Incidence/Mortality of Liver Cancer in Japan through Logistic Curve Fitting

  • Okamoto, Etsuji
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.5891-5893
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    • 2013
  • Incidence/mortality of liver cancer follow logistic curves because there is a limit reflecting the prevalence of hepatitis virus carriers in the cohort. The author fitted logistic curves to incidence/mortality data covering the nine five-year cohorts born in 1911-1955 of both sexes. Goodness-of-fit of logistic curves was sufficiently precise to be used for future predictions. Younger cohorts born in 1936 or later were predicted to show constant decline in incidence/mortality in the future. The male cohort born in 1931-35 showed an elevated incidence/mortality of liver cancer early in their lives supporting the previous claim that this particular cohort had suffered massive HCV infection due to nation-wide drug abuse in the 1950s. Declining case-fatality observed in younger cohorts suggested improved treatment of liver cancer. This study demonstrated that incidence/mortality of liver cancer follow logistic curves and fitted logistic formulae can be used for future prediction. Given the predicted decline of incidence/mortality in younger cohorts, liver cancer is likely to be lost to history in the not-so-distant future.

A Study on the Application of New Strength Control Model of Concrete Structure using Freiesleben Function (Freiesleben 함수를 이용한 콘크리트구조물의 새로운 강도관리모델 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Moo-Han;Nam, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Jeong-Il;Khil, Bae-Su
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.135-140
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    • 2003
  • As a construction technique is developed recently, the construction space and construction period are considered to important matters. Especially, in case of construction period, several method is proposed for strength control in the construction field. However there are very little strength control models for application of internal condition. The purpose of this study is to develop a strength control model for application of variety internal condition at construction field. The results are as follows ; 1) According to the results of compressive strength of concrete evaluated by logistic curve and proposed curve, proposed curve is applicable of construction field because there is similar relation with logistic curve. 2) It is shown that the construction period is shortened by reduction of the formwork removal time, because a predicted compressive strength of using the new curve is higher than the proposed compressive strength of standard.

Application Method of Logistic Regression Analysis for Annoyance Prediction Model Based on Predicted Noise Level (예측소음도를 이용한 어노이언스 예측모델을 위한 로지스틱 회귀분석의 적용방법)

  • Son, Jin-Hee;Lee, Kun;Choung, Tae-Ryang;Chang, Seo-Il
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.555-561
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    • 2010
  • Predicted noise level has been used to assess the annoyance response since noise map was generalized and being the normal method to assess the environmental noise. Unfortunately using predicted noise level to derive the annoyance prediction curve caused some problems. The data have to be grouped manually to use the annoyance prediction curve. The aim of this paper is to propose the method to handle the predicted noise level and the survey data for annoyance prediction curve. This paper used the percentage of persons annoyed(%A) and the percentage of persons highly annoyed as the descriptor of noise annoyance in a population. The logistic regression method was used for deriving annoyance prediction curve. It is concluded that the method of dichotomizing data and logistic regression was suitable to handle the predicted noise level and survey data.

Goodness-of-fit test for the logistic distribution based on multiply type-II censored samples

  • Kang, Suk-Bok;Han, Jun-Tae;Cho, Young-Seuk
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.195-209
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we derive the estimators of the location parameter and the scale parameter in a logistic distribution based on multiply type-II censored samples by the approximate maximum likelihood estimation method. We use four modified empirical distribution function (EDF) types test for the logistic distribution based on multiply type-II censored samples using proposed approximate maximum likelihood estimators. We also propose the modified normalized sample Lorenz curve plot for the logistic distribution based on multiply type-II censored samples. For each test, Monte Carlo techniques are used to generate the critical values. The powers of these tests are also investigated under several alternative distributions.