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A Study on the Estimation of Discount Rate for the Technology Valuation of Small-Sized Venture Firm (중소벤처기업의 기술가치평가를 위한 할인율 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Oong Hyun;Yang, Dong Woo
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2005
  • The reliability of technology valuation depends on, among other things, the reliability of the discount rate estimate. The weighted average cost of capital, generally accepted as discount rate, consists of cost of equity and cost of debt. The model used to estimate the cost of equity for publicly traded firms can not be used directly for small-sized venture firms. In addition, the estimation of cost of debt become very difficult, given the limited and volatile price history, because these small-sized venture firms do not have associated credit ratings. Since two kinds of cost of capital for the small-sized venture firms can not be estimated directly from market data, this study suggests statistical frame works for estimating unknown two kinds of cost of capital. The estimates of underlying cost of capital will help determine the size of appropriate discount rate with logical and scientific way when the technology valuation for small-sized venture firms is made. This study also suggests the necessity of the risk premium for the technology competitiveness to improve the estimation of the appropriate discount rate for small-sized venture firms.

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The Estimation of Compensation for Revoking a License for Fishery Business and Appropriate Discount Rate (어업권 취소에 대한 손실보상액 추정과 이자율)

  • Jung, Hyung-Chan;Chung, Man-Hwa
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2013
  • We investigate the appropriateness of the fixed 12% discount rate to be used in estimating the amount of compensation for revoking a license for fishery business by the Enforcement Decree of Fisheries Act in Korea. We also suggest the appropriate discount rate fully reflecting the change of market interest rate in the Korean financial market. The capital asset pricing model, or, CAPM is the best known model of risk and return, and is widely used to estimate the expected rate of return for the risky projects. Even though the CAPM implies that the discount rate or the expected rate of return should change as the related market factors do, the discount rate used to estimate compensation for revoking a license for fishery business remains to be the same 12% rate for the last 15 years by law. During this period, however, the yield to maturity for the 5-year government bonds in Korea has dramatically changed from about 12% to less than 3%. In order to provide the fair compensation for the damages against the coastal fisheries and evaluate the intrinsic value of fishery resources in the coastal areas, we suggest that the appropriate discount rate should be determined by the yield to maturity of the government bonds with 5-year maturity, instead of the current fixed 12% interest rate.

Revisiting Social Discount Rates for Public Investment

  • SONG, JOONHYUK
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.75-98
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    • 2017
  • This paper aims to estimate the social discount rate (SDR) rather than dig into its theoretical foundation. As SDRs can be derived by investigating both the rate of return on investment and the social time preference rate, we estimate the marginal productivity of both private and public capital and the time preference rate based on the Euler equation. In order to provide a single representative SDR, the weighted averages of the marginal productivity and time preference rate, whose weights are determined by the flow of funds data reflecting the social demand of funds, are presented. Based on the empirical results, we argue that the marginal productivity of private capital stands in the middle of the 3% range while that of public capital varies from 4.5% to 8.6%, with the time preference rate showing a decreasing trend from 3.2% in the early 2000s to 1.2% by around 2030. The single representative SDR or the weighted SDR is estimated to be approximately 3.0~4.5% and expected to continue its downward trend for the foreseeable future.

Discount Survival Models for No Covariate Case

  • Joo Yong Shim
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.491-496
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    • 1997
  • For the survival data analysis of no covariate the discount survival model is proposed to estimate the time-varying hazard rate and the survival function recursively. In comparison with the covariate case it provide the distributionally explicit evolution of hazard rate between time intervals under the assumption of a conjugate gamma distribution. Also forecasting of the hazard rate in the next time interval is suggested, which leads to the forcecasted survival function.

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The Effect of Social Discount Rate Manipulation on the Economic Feasibility Tests: Focusing on the Environmental Public Investment Projects (사회적할인율 조정이 공공투자사업의 경제성 평가에 미치는 영향: 환경투자사업을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sang Kyum
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.71-92
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    • 2013
  • Unlike general public investment projects, when it comes to environmental public investment projects, there is a gap between those who pay the costs, and those who receive the benefits. This is because of the long term nature of environmental investments, which entails that the majority of the costs are paid by the current generation, while the benefits are reaped by future generations. Because of this, when the social discount rate is set at a standard, singular rate, an issue of relative underestimation of the benefits reaped by future generations may occur during the analytic process. This paper begins with the recognition of this problem, and attempts to estimate a suitable social discount rate that can be applied to environmental investment projects. Taking into account recent economic situations, the social discount rate is currently being estimated at between 2.9 ~ 4.9%. Also, this paper used preliminary feasibility studies that took place so far, to analyze the standard pattern of benefit generation. This revealed that alterations in social discount rates can bring significant changes in economic feasibility test results. Simulation results showed that roughly 6% of B/C ratios could be increased by 1%p. resulting in a decrease in social discount rates. Also if we use hyperbolic discount rates, instead of using the current singular rate, there would be a meaningful increase in the benefits for the future generation.

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A Study on the Demand of Taxi Transfer Discount Using Ordinal Logistic Model (순서형 로짓 모형을 활용한 택시환승할인수요에 관한 고찰)

  • Kim, Ki Young;Jung, Hun Young
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Civil Engineers
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.685-692
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    • 2018
  • Busan city implemented 'taxi transfer discount system' since October 2017 in order to create for new demand taxis. However, due to the low transfer discount amount and limited payment method to prepaid cards, it is difficult to attain the aim. In this study, we investigated the usage status of taxi transfer discount system and the intention to use taxi transfer discount system according to the discount amount level. We established a model of intention to estimate demand of taxi transfer discount using ordinal logistic model. The results of analysis are as following. The critical reason for low usage was to limit taxi transfer discount payment methods to prepaid cards other than post-paid cards which is used for most transportation payment. It was found that the discount rate for taxi transfers was affected in order of payment method, the purpose of the travel, major transportation, frequency taxi use, age, transportation costs, and the discount of taxi transfers. Also, the taxi transfer discount could be expected to increase to 1,550 won based on the price elasticity of demand due to changes in taxi transfer discount rate.

The Socioeconomic Cost of Diseases in Korea (질병의 사회.경제적 비용 추계)

  • Ko, Suk-Ja;Jung, Young-Ho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.499-504
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    • 2006
  • Objectives : The aim of the study was to estimate the annual socioeconomic cost of diseases in Korea. Methods : We estimate both the direct and indirect costs of diseases in Korea during 2003 using a prevalence-based approach. The direct cost estimates included medical expenditures, traffic costs and caregiver's cost, and the indirect costs, representing the loss of production, included lost workdays due to illness and lost earnings due to premature death, which were estimated based on the human capital theory. The cost estimates were reported at three different discount rates (0, 3 and 5%). Results : The cost of diseases in Korea during 2003 was 38.4 trillion won based on 0% discount rate. This estimate represents approximately 5.3% of GDP The direct and indirect costs were estimated to be 22.5 trillion (58.5% of total cost) and 15.9 trillion won (41.5%), respectively. It was also found that the cost for those aged $40\sim49$ accounted for the largest proportion (21.7%) in relation to age groups. The cost of diseases for males was 23.5% higher than that for females. For major diseases, the total socioeconomic costs were 16.0, 13.4, 11.3 and 11.19% for neoplasms, and diseases of the digestive, respiratory and circulatory systems, respectively. Conclusions : This study can be expected to provide valuable information for determining intervention and funding priorities, and for planning health policies.

A Study on the Estimation of Optimum Remodeling Period for Apartment Buildings using Total Cost (경년별 총비용을 고려한 공동주택의 리모델링 시기 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Son Chang-Baek;Oh Chi-Don
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.111-119
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    • 2005
  • Although the life-spans of most apartment buildings are over fifty years, they are often demolished and retrofitted only after twenty years, in spite of its remaining life expectancy, resulting in economical waste. The purpose of this paper is to estimate optimum remodeling period of apartment buildings using total cost. In this study it is seen that total sum of running cost of life-span on the buildings is about 4.69 times of initial cost till the fifty years of the life expectancy. The optimum remodeling period of the apartment building is thirty years applying the discount rate of $4.17\%$ and the discount rate should be $6.122\%$ to obtain the forty years of the optimum remodeling period. From the sensitivity analysis based on the change of the discount rates, it is seen that if discount rate decreases the optimum remodeling period can be extended, or vice versa. As a result, a time of the demolished and remodeling can be expected and the basic data can also be established for lengthening life-span of the apartment buildings.

Valuation of Forest Habitat Functions of Endangered Mammals Using Species Distribution Model

  • Kim, Jung Teak;Kim, Jaeuk;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Jeon, Seong Woo;Kim, Joon Soon
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.207-213
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    • 2015
  • It is estimated that there is a total of approximately 100,000 species in Korea. However, the number is currently about 30,000 and only 16,027 species are listed in the 'Species Korea' (as of December, 2014). Of the listed species, 51 species are designated as the Endangered Species Class I while 195 species are in the Class II, totaling 246 endangered species including 20 mammals. Under the circumstances that development (e.g., roads) is increasingly threatening the persistence of endangered mammals, it is significant to identify and preserve suitable habitats for them. In this context, evaluating the values of the suitable habitat environment would serve as essential information for development decision making. This study estimated the values of endangered mammals' forest habitats through spatialization of habitat services. In doing so, a species distribution model, Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) was utilized for a group of endangered mammals including, mountain goat, wildcat, marten cat, and flying squirrel. To calculate the values per unit area, a benefit transfer method was used based on the point-estimate technique with the best available values estimated previously. The range of discount rate of 3.0 to 5.5 percent was applied taking the notion of social discount rate into account. As a result, the province with the highest values for endangered mammal habitats appeared to be Gangwon, followed by Gyeongbuk and Gyeongnam. The monetary values of the endangered mammal habitats were estimated to be 330 billion to 421 billion won per year.

Rate of Return Analysis in Investment for Postgraduate Science and Engineering Education (수익률분석방법(收益率分析方法)에 의한 이공계(理工系) 대학원(大學院)의 교육투자(敎育投資) 수익성(收益性))

  • Kim, Dong-Muk;Kim, Ji-Su
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.89-99
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    • 1986
  • The study attempts to estimate and evaluate the rates of return on graduate degree holders who major in science and engineering. The model of this study adopts the rate of return method considering unemployment as well as mortality rate. The data are collected by questionnaires and interviews. The results show that the social rate of return(SROR) of bachelors is lower than the rate of return on investment in physical capital which is assumed as a decision criterion of public investment in Korea, but the SROR of Ph.D. holders is balanced. The results also show that the private rates of return (PROR) of all the levels in postgraduate science and engineering education are higher than the private discount rate which is a decision criterion of private investment in Korea. It also indicates that the PROR on investment in graduate education is not likely higher than the SROR because an individual bears high share of the educational costs.

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