• Title, Summary, Keyword: age-period-cohort model

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Cancer Risk in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes on Antidiabetic Monotherapy: A Population Based Cohort Study Using National Insurance Health Service Database (혈당강하제 단독요법 투여 당뇨병환자에서 암발생률 평가: 후향적 코호트 연구)

  • Jung, Han Yeong;Lee, Sukhyang
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.186-192
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    • 2019
  • Background: Diabetes is associated with cancer risk in the aging population. Observational studies have indicated the beneficial effects of metformin against breast cancer, making studies on the anticancer potential of antidiabetic drugs worthwhile. This study investigated cancer incidence in patients on antidiabetic monotherapy. Methods: Using National Health Insurance Service data (2002-2013), a retrospective cohort study that included type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients was conducted. Study subjects were enrolled if they were ${\geq}30$ years old, on monotherapy for diabetes, and cancer-free. They were followed up for cancer occurrence or death, until December 31st, 2013. A Cox proportional hazard model analysis was conducted between metformin and sulfonylurea (including meglitinide) users, to determine cancer risk, with adjustment for age, gender, comorbidity index, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and T2DM duration. Results: The number of antidiabetic monotherapy-treated T2DM patients without a history of cancer was 9,554 (metformin, n = 5,825; sulfonylurea, n = 3,225; others, n = 504). During the follow-up period (mean, 2.04; IQR, 3.18 years), the cancer incidence rate was 5.48/100 and 5.45/100 patient-years for metformin and sulfonylurea, respectively. The hazard ratio (HR) for risk of cancer incidence in the metformin group was 0.74 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66-0.83; p < 0.0001), compared with sulfonylurea. Additionally, the HRs for risks of lung, liver, and stomach cancer were respectively 0.46 (95% CI, 0.31-0.66; p < 0.0001), 0.41 (95% CI, 0.31-0.54; p < 0.0001), and 0.51 (95% CI, 0.35-0.73; p = 0.0003). Conclusion: Antidiabetic therapy with metformin reduces cancer risk by 26%, specifically for lung, liver, and stomach cancer.

An Empirical Analysis of The Determinants and Long-term Projections for The Demand and Supply of Labor force (노동력수급의 요인분석과 전망)

  • 김중수
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 1986
  • The purpose of this paper is two-fold. One is to investigate the determinants of the demand supply of labor, and another is to project long-term demand and supply of labor. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, theoretical models and important hypotheses are discussed: for the case of a labor supply model, issues regarding discouraged worker model, permanent wage hypothesis, and relative wage hypothesis are examined and for the case of a demand model, issues regarding estimating an employment demand equation within the framework of an inverted short-run produc- tion function are inspected. Particularly, a theoretical justification for introducing a demographic cohort variable in a labor supply equation is also investigated. In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population. Some major findings arc summarized as follows. (1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 2O~24 groups and females aged 14∼19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups. (2) Except for females aged 20∼24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups. (3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations (4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (6O and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes. (5)The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absord labor force has been declining;that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreasre over time. In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime- age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20∼24 and 25∼34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25∼34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20∼24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifi- cally, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995). In conclusion, while the number of an excess supply of labor will increase in absolute magnitude, its size as a ratio of total labor force is not likely to increase. However, the age composition of labor force is predicted to change; that is, the proportion of prime-age male and female labor force is projected to increase.

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Mortality Forecasting for Population Projection (장래인구추계를 위한 사망률 예측)

  • Kim, Tai-Hun
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.27-51
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, I have tested various kinds of methods for mortality projection and chose Lee-Carter method for projection of Korean mortality by age and sex. I reviewed the trends of life tables and life expectancies by age and sex from 2005 to 2050 projected by Lee-Carter method and found that the method was very applicable for Korean mortality projection. The differences between reported and estimated data for the period of 1971-2003 were small enough for both sexes and for all of the age groups. The projected life expectancies in 2051 were 82.73 years for males and 89.41 for females, and the differences decreased from 7.06 years in 2005 to 6.68 years. Because of the limitation of Korean infant mortality rate, I adopted the Japanese estimated IMR in 2050 as Korean object level in 2051. When the time series of IMR become long enough, we can use Korean IMR directly for the mortality projection. In addition, if we can estimate the changes of the main cause of death correctly in future, the mortality projection will be more correct and reliable. This will be available when we can produce a long series of life tables by cause of deaths.

Association between BMI and Mortality - Kangwha cohort study - (BMI와 사망과의 관련성 - 강화 코호트 연구 -)

  • Yoon, Soo-Jin;Yi, Sang-Wook;Kim, Soh-Yoon;Lee, Soon-Young;Park, Yun-Hee;Sohn, Tae-Yong;Ohrr, Hee-Choul
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.459-468
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    • 2000
  • Objectives : To investigate the association between BMI and Mortality. Methods : This study was based on the analysis and assembly of the 'Kangwha Cohort Study', previously conducted by the Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University. A total of 2,696 males and 3,595 females were followed for almost ten years and ten months from March 1985 to January 1996, a total of whom 2,420 died during this period. The Cox's proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze this data. Results : We found a U-shaped relationship between BMI and mortality among the aged men in the Kangwha cohort. The hazard ratio of dying was adjusted for age, marital status, occupation, self cognitive health level, chronic disease, smoking, and alcohol frequency, then sorted by body mass index into the following groups; less than 10.5, 18.5 to less than 21.0, 21.0 to less than 23.5, 23.5 to less than 26.0 and greater than or equal to 26. The corresponding ratios for men were 1.81(1.50-2.19, 95%CI), 1.31(1.14-1.51, 95%CI), 1.0(referent), 1.05(0.87-1.26, 95%CI) and 1.39(1.09-1.76, 95%CI), respectively. And for women, 1.46(1.19-1.78), 1.12(0.95-1.31, 95%CI), 1.0(referent), 1.00(0.84-1.20, 95%CI) and 1.09(0.89-1.34, 95%CI), respectively. Conclusions : The risk of death among aged men in Kangwha increased in the under and overweight groups. The relationship between BMl and mortality has been well studied in Western populations, but little is known about the association between BMI and mortality in our country. So, on the basis of this study, it is apparent that more studies of the relationship between BMI and mortality will be needed for future work.

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Trends of Social Inequalities in the Specific Causes of Infant Mortality in a Nationwide Birth Cohort in Korea, 1995-2009

  • Son, Mia;An, Soo-Jeong;Kim, Young-Ju
    • Journal of Korean Medical Science
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    • v.32 no.9
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    • pp.1401-1414
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    • 2017
  • The relationship between social disparity and specific causes of infant mortality has rarely been studied. The present study analyzed infant mortality trends according to the causes of death and the inequalities in specific causes of infant mortality between different parental social classes. We analyzed 8,209,836 births from the Statistics Korea between 1995 and 2009. The trends of disparity for cause-specific infant mortality according to parental education and employment were examined using the Cox proportional hazard model for the birth-year intervals of 1995-1999, 2000-2004, and 2005-2009. Adjusted hazard ratios were calculated after adjusting for infants' gender, parents' age, maternal obstetrical history, gestational age, and birth weight. An increasing trend in social inequalities in all-cause infant mortality according to paternal education was evident. Social inequalities in infant mortality were greater for "Not classified symptoms, signs and findings" (International Classification of Diseases 10th revision [ICD-10]: R00-R99) and "Injury, poisoning and of external causes" (S00-T98), particularly for "Ill-defined and unspecified causes" (R990) and "Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS)" (R950); and increased overtime for "Not classified symptoms, signs and findings" (R00-R99), "Injury, poisoning and of external causes" (S00-T98) and "Conditions in perinatal period" (P00-P96), particularly for "SIDS" (R950) and "Respiratory distress syndrome of newborns (RDS)" (P220). The specific causes of infant mortality, in particular the "Not classified causes" (R00-R99 coded deaths) should be investigated more thoroughly to reduce inequality in health.

Treatment Costs and Factors Associated with Glycemic Control among Patients with Diabetes in the United Arab Emirates

  • Lee, Seung-Mi;Song, Inmyung;Suh, David;Chang, Chongwon;Suh, Dong-Churl
    • Journal of Obesity & Metabolic Syndrome
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.238-247
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    • 2018
  • Background: We aimed to estimate the proportion of patients with diabetes who achieved target glycemic control, to estimate diabetes-related costs attributable to poor control, and to identify factors associated with them in the United Arab Emirates. Methods: This retrospective cohort study used administrative claims data handled by Abu Dhabi Health Authority (January 2010 to June 2012) to determine glycemic control and diabetes-related treatment costs. A total of 4,058 patients were matched using propensity scores to eliminate selection bias between patients with glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) <7% and HbA1c ${\geq}7%$. Diabetes-related costs attributable to poor control were estimated using a recycled prediction method. Factors associated with glycemic control were investigated using logistic regression and factors associated with these costs were identified using a generalized linear model. Results: During the 1-year follow-up period, 46.6% of the patients achieved HbA1c <7%. Older age, female sex, better insurance coverage, non-use of insulin in the index diagnosis month, and non-use of antidiabetic medications during the follow-up period were significantly associated with improved glycemic control. The mean diabetes-related annual costs were $2,282 and $2,667 for patients with and without glycemic control, respectively, and the cost attributable to poor glycemic control was $172 (95% confidence interval [CI], $164-180). The diabetes-related costs were lower with mean HbA1c levels <7% (cost ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.88-0.99). The costs were significantly higher in patients aged ${\geq}65$ years than those aged ${\leq}44$ years (cost ratio, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.25-1.70). Conclusion: More than 50% of patients with diabetes had poorly controlled HbA1c. Poor glycemic control may increase diabetes-related costs.

Incidence Trend for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma in the North Tunisian Population, 1998-2009

  • Benhassine, Adel;Khadhra, Hajer Ben;Khiari, Houyem;Hsairi, Mohamed;Elgaaied, Amel Benammar
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.2513-2518
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    • 2016
  • Background: In 2008, non-Hodgkin lymphoma ranked tenth among other malignancies worldwide with an incidence of around 5 cases per 100,000 in both genders. The latest available rates in Tunisia are from 2006. Materials and Methods: This study aimed to provide an update about NHL incidence for 2009 and its trend between 1998 and 2009 as well as a projection until 2024, using data from the Salah Azaiz Institute hospital registry and the Noth Tunisia cancer registry. Results: In 2009, the NHL incidence in the north of Tunisia was 4.03 cases per 100,000, 4.97 for men and 3.10 for women. Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) accounted for 63.2% of all NHL subtypes. Between 1998 and 2009, the overall trend showed no significant change. When we compared the trend between two periods (1998-2005 and 2005-2009), joinpoint regression showed a significant decrease of NHL incidence in the first period with an annual percentage change (APC) of -6.7% (95% CI:[-11.2%;-2%]), then the incidence significantly increased from 2005 to 2009 with an APC of 30.5% (95% CI: [16.1%; 46.6%]. The analyses of the different subtype trends showed a significant decrease in DLBCL incidence between 1998 and 2000 (APC:-21.5; 95% CI: [-31.4%;-10.2%]) then the incidence significantly increased between 2004 and 2007 (APC: 18.5; 95% CI: [3,6%;35.5%]). Joint point analysis of the age-period-cohort model projection showed a significant increase between 2002 and 2024 with an APC of 4.5% (%95 CI: [1.5%; 7.5%]). The estimated ASR for 2024 was 4.55/100 000 (95% CI: [3.37; 6.15]). Conclusions: This study revealed an overall steady trend in the incidence of NHL in northern Tunisia between 1998 and 2009. Projection showed an increase in the incidence in NHL in both genders which draw the attention to the national and worldwide burden of this malignancy.

Association Between Pancreatitis and Subsequent Risk of Pancreatic Cancer: a Systematic Review of Epidemiological Studies

  • Tong, Gui-Xian;Geng, Qing-Qing;Chai, Jing;Cheng, Jing;Chen, Peng-Lai;Liang, Han;Shen, Xing-Rong;Wang, De-Bin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.12
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    • pp.5029-5034
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    • 2014
  • This study aimed to summarize published epidemiological evidence for the relationship between pancreatitis and subsequent risk of pancreatic cancer (PC). We searched Medline and Embase for epidemiological studies published by February $5^{th}$, 2014 examining the risk of PC in pancreatitis patients using highly inclusive algorithms. Information about first author, year of publication, country of study, recruitment period, type of pancreatitis, study design, sample size, source of controls and attained age of subjects were extracted by two researchers and Stata 11.0 was used to perform the statistical analyses and examine publication bias. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with the random effects model. A total of 17 articles documenting 3 cohort and 14 case-control studies containing 14,667 PC cases and 17,587 pancreatitis cases were included in this study. The pooled OR between pancreatitis and PC risk was 7.05 (95%CI: 6.42-7.75). Howeever, the pooled ORs of case-control and cohort studies were 4.62 (95%CI: 4.08-5.22) and 16.3 (95%CI: 14.3-18.6) respectively. The risk of PC was the highest in patients with chronic pancreatitis (pooled OR=10.35; 95%CI: 9.13-11.75), followed by unspecified type of pancreatitis (pooled OR=6.41; 95%CI: 4.93-8.34), both acute and chronic pancreatitis (pooled OR=6.13; 95%CI: 5.00-7.52), and acute pancreatitis (pooled OR=2.12; 95%CI: 1.59-2.83). The pooled OR of PC in pancreatitis cases diagnosed within 1 year was the highest (pooled OR=23.3; 95%CI: 14.0-38.9); and the risk in subjects diagnosed with pancreatitis for no less than 2, 5 and 10 years were 3.03 (95%CI: 2.41-3.81), 2.82 (95%CI: 2.12-3.76) and 2.25 (95%CI: 1.59-3.19) respectively. Pancreatitis, especially chronic pancreatitis, was associated with a significantly increased risk of PC; and the risk decreased with increasing duration since diagnosis of pancreatitis.

Abdominal Obesity in Relation to the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Impaired Fasting Glucose among some Korean Adults: A Retrospective Cohort Study (복부비만이 제2형 당뇨병 및 공복혈당장애 발생에 미치는 영향: 후향적 코호트 연구)

  • Ryu, Seung-Ho;Beck, Sung-Ho;Kim, Dong-Il;Suh, Byung-Seong;Kim, Woon-Sool;Sung, Ki-Chul;Chang, Yoo-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.359-365
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    • 2004
  • Objectives : This study was performed to determine whether an increase in abdominal obesity is an independent risk factor for impaired fasting glucose and type 2 DM. Methods : Among 24,212 adults over 30 years who undertook comprehensive medical screening examinations from Jan to Dec 1999, in a university hospital in Seoul, a total of 11,183 subjects were selected who had no DM at baseline and who were followed up more than once by Dec 2002. The average follow up period was 2.4 (${\pm}0.5$) years. DM was defined as having a fasting glucose level $\geq$ 126mg/dl, and impaired fasting glucose as showing a fasting glucose level between 110 and 125 mg/dl. Body weight, height and waist circumference (WC) were simultaneously measured with blood sampling. The relative risks (RRs) for DM and impaired fasting glucose by WC were calculated using Cox proportional hazard model. Ageadjusted rates were estimated by direct standardization using a reference population of 2000 from 30 to 80 years. Results : The average age of the subjects was 41.7 (${\pm}7.0$) years; males 41.2 (${\pm}6.5$) and females 45.6 (${\pm}9.2$). RRs for type 2 DM by WC with the reference group of WC < 80cm were as follows: 2.66 (95%, CI $0.55{\sim}12.8$) for WC of $80{\sim}89cm$ in men, 5.92 (95%, CI $1.08{\sim}32.3$) for WC $\geq$ 90 cm in men, and 2.64 (95%, CI $0.23{\sim}29.8$) for WC of $80{\sim}89cm$ in females. RRs for impaired fasting glucose by WC were 3.03 (95%, CI $2.18{\sim}4.22$) for WC $80{\sim}89cm$ in men, 6.10 (95%, CI $4.25{\sim}8.75$) for WC $\geq$ 90cm in men, and 1.56 (95%, CI $0.43{\sim}5.67$) for WC $80{\sim}89cm$ in women, and 8.08 (95%, CI $2.22{\sim}29.4$) for WC $\geq$ 90cm in females. These results remained significant after adjustment for age, BMI and fasting glucose concentrations at baseline in both sexes. Annual increment of more than 1 cm in WC was associated with the development of DM and impaired fasting glucose independently of age, sex, BMI, or presence of abdominal obesity. Conclusion : In Korean adults, abdominal obesity increased the risk for the development of type 2 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose. This result supports many other prospective studies suggesting abdominal obesity as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes.

Lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and air pollution (대기오염에 의한 폐암 및 만성폐색성호흡기질환 -개인 흡연력을 보정한 만성건강영향평가-)

  • Sung, Joo-Hon;Cho, Soo-Hun;Kang, Dae-Hee;Yoo, Keun-Young
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.585-598
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    • 1997
  • Background : Although there are growing concerns about the adverse health effect of air pollution, not much evidence on health effect of current air pollution level had been accumulated yet in Korea. This study was designed to evaluate the chronic health effect of ai. pollution using Korean Medical Insurance Corporation (KMIC) data and air quality data. Medical insurance data in Korea have some drawback in accuracy, but they do have some strength especially in their national coverage, in having unified ID system and individual information which enables various data linkage and chronic health effect study. Method : This study utilized the data of Korean Environmental Surveillance System Study (Surveillance Study), which consist of asthma, acute bronchitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), cardiovascular diseases (congestive heart failure and ischemic heart disease), all cancers, accidents and congenital anomaly, i. e., mainly potential environmental diseases. We reconstructed a nested case-control study wit5h Surveillance Study data and air pollution data in Korea. Among 1,037,210 insured who completed? questionnaire and physical examination in 1992, disease free (for chronic respiratory disease and cancer) persons, between the age of 35-64 with smoking status information were selected to reconstruct cohort of 564,991 persons. The cohort was followed-up to 1995 (1992-5) and the subjects who had the diseases in Surveillance Study were selected. Finally, the patients, with address information and available air pollution data, left to be 'final subjects' Cases were defined to all lung cancer cases (424) and COPD admission cases (89), while control groups are determined to all other patients than two case groups among 'final subjects'. That is, cases are putative chronic environmental diseases, while controls are mainly acute environmental diseases. for exposure, Air quality data in 73 monitoring sites between 1991 - 1993 were analyzed to surrogate air pollution exposure level of located areas (58 areas). Five major air pollutants data, TSP, $O_3,\;SO_2$, CO, NOx was available and the area means were applied to the residents of the local area. 3-year arithmetic mean value, the counts of days violating both long-term and shot-term standards during the period were used as indices of exposure. Multiple logistic regression model was applied. All analyses were performed adjusting for current and past smoking history, age, gender. Results : Plain arithmetic means of pollutants level did not succeed in revealing any relation to the risk of lung cancer or COPD, while the cumulative counts of non-at-tainment days did. All pollutants indices failed to show significant positive findings with COPD excess. Lung cancer risks were significantly and consistently associated with the increase of $O_3$ and CO exceedance counts (to corrected error level -0.017) and less strongly and consistently with $SO_2$ and TSP. $SO_2$ and TSP showed weaker and less consistent relationship. $O_3$ and CO were estimated to increase the risks of lung cancer by 2.04 and 1.46 respectively, the maximal probable risks, derived from comparing more polluted area (95%) with cleaner area (5%). Conclusions : Although not decisive due to potential misclassication of exposure, these results wert drawn by relatively conservative interpretation, and could be used as an evidence of chronic health effect especially for lung cancer. $O_3$ might be a candidate for promoter of lung cancer, while CO should be considered as surrogated measure of motor vehicle emissions. The control selection in this study could have been less appropriate for COPD, and further evaluation with another setting might be necessary.

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