• Title, Summary, Keyword: age-period-cohort model

Search Result 41, Processing Time 0.033 seconds

Trends in Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality in Korea, 1985-2009: An Age-period-cohort Analysis

  • Lee, Hye-Ah;Park, Hye-Sook
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.45 no.5
    • /
    • pp.323-328
    • /
    • 2012
  • Objectives: Economic growth and development of medical technology help to improve the average life expectancy, but the western diet and rapid conversions to poor lifestyles lead an increasing risk of major chronic diseases. Coronary heart disease mortality in Korea has been on the increase, while showing a steady decline in the other industrialized countries. An age-period-cohort analysis can help understand the trends in mortality and predict the near future. Methods: We analyzed the time trends of ischemic heart disease mortality, which is on the increase, from 1985 to 2009 using an age-period-cohort model to characterize the effects of ischemic heart disease on changes in the mortality rate over time. Results: All three effects on total ischemic heart disease mortality were statistically significant. Regarding the period effect, the mortality rate was decreased slightly in 2000 to 2004, after it had continuously increased since the late 1980s that trend was similar in both sexes. The expected age effect was noticeable, starting from the mid-60's. In addition, the age effect in women was more remarkable than that in men. Women born from the early 1900s to 1925 observed an increase in ischemic heart mortality. That cohort effect showed significance only in women. Conclusions: The future cohort effect might have a lasting impact on the risk of ischemic heart disease in women with the increasing elderly population, and a national prevention policy is need to establish management of high risk by considering the age-period-cohort effect.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Liver Cancer Mortality in Korea

  • Park, Jihwan;Jee, Yon Ho
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.16 no.18
    • /
    • pp.8589-8594
    • /
    • 2016
  • Background: Liver cancer is one of the most common causes of death in the world. In Korea, hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a major risk factor for liver cancer but infection rates have been declining since the implementation of the national vaccination program. In this study, we examined the secular trends in liver cancer mortality to distinguish the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort. Materials and Methods: Data for the annual number of liver cancer deaths in Korean adults (30 years and older) were obtained from the Korean Statistical Information Service for the period from 1984-2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to study the shapes of and to detect the changes in mortality trends. Also, an age-period-cohort model was designed to study the effect of each age, period, and birth cohort on liver cancer mortality. Results: For both men and women, the age-standardized mortality rate for liver cancer increased from 1984 to 1993 and decreased thereafter. The highest liver cancer mortality rate has shifted to an older age group in recent years. Within the same birth cohort group, the mortality rate of older age groups has been higher than in the younger age groups. Age-period-cohort analysis showed an association with a high mortality rate in the older age group and in recent years, whereas a decreasing mortality rate were observed in the younger birth cohort. Conclusions: This study confirmed a decreasing trend in liver cancer mortality among Korean men and women after 1993. The trends in mortality rate may be mainly attributed to cohort effects.

Income Inequality Decomposed by Age, Period and Cohort Effects: A Comparison of the Capital and Non-Capital Regions (연령, 시간, 코호트효과를 고려한 소득 불평등: 수도권과 비수도권 간 비교)

  • Jeong, Jun Ho
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.23 no.2
    • /
    • pp.166-181
    • /
    • 2020
  • This paper attempts to compare and analyze the intensity, trend, and regional gap of income inequality, capitalizing upon the Age-Period-Cohort model which considers age, time and cohort effects, with the 1998-2018 Korea Labor Panel (KLIPS) survey data for respondents living in the Capital and Non-Capital Regions. The main analysis results are as follows. First, in the case of both cohort and age effects, those in their 50~60s, including the so-called baby boomers and '386 generation' living in the Capital Region, have relatively lower income inequality effect compared to that of other age groups and cohorts in the Non-Capital Region. Second, the micro-individual characteristics cannot be ignored to account for a regional gap in income inequality, but rather the effects of structural and institutional omitted variables and the social discrimination effects of individual characteristics variables are more significant in explaining it. Overall, intra-and inter-cohort income inequalities appear to overlap.

Determinants of Household Debt using a Hierarchical Aging-Period-Cohort Model: Baby-boomers with Middle-Aged & Older Adults (위계적 APC모델을 활용한 가계부채결정원인 분석: 베이비부머세대 포함 중·장년·노년층을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jeungkun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.17 no.9
    • /
    • pp.396-405
    • /
    • 2017
  • Main purpose of this study is to analyze determinants of household debt among middle and old individuals aged between 32 and 76 that include Korean baby-boomers(born between 1955 and 1963), using a HAPC (Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort) model and Korean Welfare Panel Study 2006-2016. This study includes 86,056 individuals. Research findings indicate that aging and period effects have statistically significant relationships with household debt levels, however, cohort effects including a baby-boomer generation do not. While household debt increases by 3,530,000 Korean won as age increases by one year, the rate of increase in household debt reduces as individual ages. In addition, employment and health status at the individual level have significant effects on household debt levels. The unemployed are more likely than the employed to have high household debt levels while unhealthy people tend than healthy people to have high household debt levels.

Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Osaka, Japan: Future Trends Estimation with an Age-Period-Cohort Model

  • Utada, Mai;Ohno, Yuko;Shimizu, Sachiko;Ito, Yuri;Tsukuma, Hideaki
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.13 no.8
    • /
    • pp.3893-3898
    • /
    • 2012
  • In previous studies we predicted future trends in cancer incidence for each prefecture in order to plan cancer control. Those predictions, however, did not take into account the characteristics of each prefecture. We therefore used the results of age-period-cohort analysis of incidence and mortality data of Osaka, and estimated the incidence and mortality of cancers at all sites and selected sites. The results reflect the characteristics of Osaka, which has and is expected to have large number of patients with liver cancer. We believe our results to be useful for planning and evaluating cancer control activities in Osaka. It would be worthwhile to base the estimation of cancer incidence and mortality in each prefecture on each population-based cancer registry.

Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effects on the Incidence and Mortality Rate of Cervical Cancer in Korea

  • Moon, Eun-Kyeong;Oh, Chang-Mo;Won, Young-Joo;Lee, Jong-Keun;Jung, Kyu-Won;Cho, Hyunsoon;Jun, Jae Kwan;Lim, Myong Cheol;Ki, Moran
    • Cancer Research and Treatment
    • /
    • v.49 no.2
    • /
    • pp.526-533
    • /
    • 2017
  • Purpose This study was conducted to describe the trends and age-period-cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer in Korea. Materials and Methods The incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer among ${\geq}20-year-old$ women from 1993 to 2012 were obtained from the Korea Central Cancer Registry and the Korean Statistical Information Service. Age-standardized rates were calculated and Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the trends in the incidence and mortality rate. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to investigate the independent effects of age, period and cohort. Results The incidence of cervical cancer decreased from 32.8 per 100,000 in 1993 to 15.9 per 100,000 in 2012 (annual percent change [APC], -3.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -4.2% to -3.6%). The mortality rate decreased from 5.2 per 100,000 in 1993 to 2.1 per 100,000 in 2012 (APC, -4.8%; 95% CI, -5.1% to -4.4%); however, the incidence and mortality rates among young women (< 30 years old) increased. An age-period-cohort model of the incidence and mortality rate showed decreasing period effects between 1993 and 2008 and decreasing cohort effects between 1928 and 1973, while birth cohorts after 1973 exhibited slight increases in the incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer. Conclusion Recent decreases in the incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer were due to decreases in the period and cohort effects, which reflect the implementation of a cancer screening program and changes in lifestyle. However, our findings also highlighted an increase in cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rate among young women born after 1973.

A Birth Cohort Approach to the Household Life-Cycle Model of Residential Mobility: The Case of Jinju City (생애주기에 따른 주거이동 모형에 대한 출생코호트 접근과 해석 : 진주시를 사례로)

  • Lee, Chung-Sup
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
    • /
    • v.17 no.1
    • /
    • pp.75-95
    • /
    • 2011
  • A birth cohort approach to the Household life-cycle model could be an alternative to cross-sectional data. In this study, each residential mobilities of birth cohorts' is traced by the cohort data from repeated cross-section in the case of Jinju city. Because of the differences in fertilities by era, the volume of each cohort as a consumer in housing has varied and the condition of housing stock also has changed as the time goes by. These changes in housing make not only age effect stressed in Rossi's model, but also cohort and period effect. Due to theses effects of time, every residential mobility trajectories of generations' is different especially in earlier life stages. As households get older, it is found that the age effect reduces and the probability of residential mobility is lower. As this result, the residential succession and filtering between the earlier and latter generations is weakened and the residential segregation could be happened by birth cohort.

  • PDF

Development of Fertility Assumptions for the Future Population Projection (장래인구추계를 위한 출산력 가정치의 설정)

  • Jun, Kwang-Hee
    • Korea journal of population studies
    • /
    • v.29 no.2
    • /
    • pp.53-88
    • /
    • 2006
  • The major aim of this paper is to develop a hypothetical set of age-specific fertility rates which are logically derived and reasonably accurate in the projection of future population. The first procedure is to select a generalized log-gamma distribution model, which includes Coale-McNeil nuptiality model, in order to estimate and project a set of age-specific fertility rates by birth cohort and birth order. The second is to apply the log-gamma model with an empirical adjustment to the actual data to estimate and project the future fertility rates for relatively young birth cohorts who did not complete their reproductive career. This study reconstructs or translates a set of cohort age-specific fertility rates into a set of period age-specific fertility rates which must be hypothesized in order to establish the broader framework of future population projection. For example, the fertility at age 20 in the year of 2020 is the fertility at age 20 for the cohort born in 1990, while the fertility at age 21 in the year of 2020 is the fertility at 21 for the cohort born in 1989. In turn, once a set of age-specific fertility rates for the cohorts who were born up to the year of 2010, it is possible for one to establish an hypothetical set of period age-specific fertility rates which will be needed to project the future population until the year of 2055. The difference in the hypothetical system of age-specific fertility rates between this study and the 2005 special population projection comes from the fact that the fertility estimation/projection model used in this study was skillfully exploited to reflect better actual trend of fertility decline caused by rise in marriage age and increasing proportion of those who remain single until their end of reproduction. In this regard, this paper argues that the set of age-specific fertility rates derived from this study is more logical and reasonably accurate than the set of those used for the 2005 special projection. In the population projection, however, the fundamental issue of the hypothetical setting of age-specific fertility rates in relation to the fertility estimation/projection model is about how skillfully one can handle the period effects. It is not easy for one to completely cope with the problem of period effects except for the a minor period adjustment based on recent actual data, along with the given framework of a cohort-based fertility estimation/projection model.

Time Trends of Esophageal Cancer Mortality in Linzhou City During the Period 1988-2010 and a Bayesian Approach Projection for 2020

  • Liu, Shu-Zheng;Zhang, Fang;Quan, Pei-Liang;Lu, Jian-Bang;Liu, Zhi-Cai;Sun, Xi-Bin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.13 no.9
    • /
    • pp.4501-4504
    • /
    • 2012
  • In recent decades, decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality have been observed across China. We here describe esophageal cancer mortality trends in Linzhou city, a high-incidence region of esophageal cancer in China, during 1988-2010 and make a esophageal cancer mortality projection in the period 2011-2020 using a Bayesian approach. Age standardized mortality rates were estimated by direct standardization to the World population structure in 1985. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on esophageal cancer mortality in Linzhou during 1988-2010 and to estimate future trends for the period 2011-2020. Age-adjusted rates for men and women decreased from 1988 to 2005 and changed little thereafter. Risk increased from 30 years of age until the very elderly. Period effects showed little variation in risk throughout 1988-2010. In contrast, a cohort effect showed risk decreased greatly in later cohorts. Forecasting, based on BAPC modeling, resulted in a increasing burden of mortality and a decreasing age standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city. The decrease of esophageal cancer mortality risk since the 1930 cohort could be attributable to the improvements of socialeconomic environment and lifestyle. The standardized mortality rates of esophageal cancer should decrease continually. The effect of aging on the population could explain the increase in esophageal mortality projected for 2020.

Breast Cancer in Lopburi, a Province in Central Thailand: Analysis of 2001-2010 Incidence and Future Trends

  • Sangkittipaiboon, Somphob;Leklob, Atit;Sriplung, Hutcha;Bilheem, Surichai
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.16 no.18
    • /
    • pp.8359-8364
    • /
    • 2016
  • Background: Thailand has come to an epidemiologic transition with decreasing infectious diseases and increasing burden of chronic conditions, including cancer. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among females throughout Thailand. This study aimed to identify the current burden and the future trends of breast cancer of Lopburi, a province in the Central Thailand. Materials and Methods: We used cancer incidence data from the Lopburi Cancer Registry to characterize and analyze the incidence of breast cancer in Central Thailand. With joinpoint and age-period-cohort analyses, the incidence of breast cancer in the province from 2001 to 2010 and project future trends from 2011 to 2030 was investigated. Results: Age-adjusted incidence rates of breast cancer in Lopburi increased from 23.4 to 34.3 cases per 100,000 female population during the period, equivalent to an annual percentage change of 4.3% per year. Both period and cohort effects played a role in shaping the increase in incidence. Joinpoint projection suggested that incidence rates would continue to increase in the future with incidence for women ages 50 years and above increasing at a higher rate than for women below the age of 50. Conclusions: The current situation where early detection measures are being promoted could increase detection rates of the disease. Preparation of sufficient budget for treatment facilities and human resources, both in surgical and medical oncology, is essential for future medical care.