• Title, Summary, Keyword: accident model

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A Proposition of Accident Causation Model for the Analysis of Human Error Accidents in Railway Operations (철도 분야의 인적 오류 사고 분석을 위한 사고발생 모형의 제안)

  • Kim, Dong-San;Baek, Dong-Hyun;Yoon, Wan-Chul
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.241-248
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    • 2010
  • In accident analysis, it is essential to understand the causal pathways of the accident. Although numerous accident models have been developed to help analysts understand how and why an accident occurs, most of them do not include all elements related to the accident in various fields. Thus analysis of human error accidents in railway operations using these existing models may be possible, but inevitably incomplete. For a more thorough analysis of the accidents in railway operations, a more exhaustive model of accident causation is needed. This paper briefly reviews four recent accident causation models, and proposes a new model that overcomes the limitations of the existing models for the analysis of human error accidents in railway operations. In addition, the usefulness and comprehensiveness of the proposed model is briefly tested by explaining 12 railway accident cases with the model. The proposed accident causation model is expected to improve understanding of how and why an accident/incident occurs, and help prevent analysts from missing any important aspect of human error accidents in railway operations

Development of Accident Classification Model and Ontology for Effective Industrial Accident Analysis based on Textmining (효과적인 산업재해 분석을 위한 텍스트마이닝 기반의 사고 분류 모형과 온톨로지 개발)

  • Ahn, Gilseung;Seo, Minji;Hur, Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.179-185
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    • 2017
  • Accident analysis is an essential process to make basic data for accident prevention. Most researches depend on survey data and accident statistics to analyze accidents, but these kinds of data are not sufficient for systematic and detailed analysis. We, in this paper, propose an accident classification model that extracts task type, original cause materials, accident type, and the number of deaths from accident reports. The classification model is a support vector machine (SVM) with word occurrence features, and these features are selected based on mutual information. Experiment shows that the proposed model can extract task type, original cause materials, accident type, and the number of deaths with almost 100% accuracy. We also develop an accident ontology to express the information extracted by the classification model. Finally, we illustrate how the proposed classification model and ontology effectively works for the accident analysis. The classification model and ontology are expected to effectively analyze various accidents.

A Study of Traffic Accident Analysis Model on Highway in Accordance with the Accident Rate of Trucks (화물차사고 비율에 따른 고속도로 교통사고 분석모형에 대한 연구)

  • Yang, Sung-Ryong;Yoon, Byoung-jo;Ko, Eun-Hyeok
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.570-576
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    • 2017
  • Trucks take up more portions than cars on highways. Due to this, road use relatively diminish and it serves locally as a threatening factor to nearby drivers. Baggage car accident has distinct characteristics so that it needs the application of different analysis opposed to ordinary accidents. Accident prediction model, one of accident analyses, is used to predict the numbers of accident in certain parts, establish traffic plans as well as accident prevention methods, and diagnose the danger of roads. Thus, this study aims to apply the accident rate of baggage car on highways and calculate the correction factor to be put in the accident prediction models. Accident data based on highway was collected and traffic amounts and accident documents between 2014 and 2016 were utilized. The author developed an accident prediction model based on numbers of annual accidents and set mean annual and daily traffic amounts. This study intends to identify the practical accident prediction model on highway and present an appropriate solution by comparing the prediction model in accords with the accident rate between baggage cars.

Forecasting of the Fatal Accident and Accident Rate by Static and Dynamic Method in the Forestry (임업에서 정적 모형과 동적 모형을 적용한 업무상사고 사망과 재해율 예측)

  • Kang, Young-Sig
    • 대한설비관리학회지
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2018
  • Occupational accident rate in Korea has occurred most frequently in the service industry, manufacturing industry, and construction industry. However, forestry, agriculture, and fishing are in a blind spot in policies of occupational safety and health because they are usually under 50 workers. So these industries are very important in order to prevent of industrial accidents because of poor safety management. Above all, accurate prediction of the occupational accident rate and fatal accident rate in the forestry is required to prevent the occupational accidents systematically and continuously. Therefore, this paper proposes very efficient policies for prevention of industrial accidents with these prediction results in the forestry. Also, this paper describes the optimal occupational accident rate and fatal accident rate by minimization of the sum of square errors (SSE) among regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, proposed analytic function model (PAFM) by static method, and, kalman filtering model (KFM) by dynamic method with existing accident data in forestry. In this paper, microsoft foundation class (MFC) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to minimize SSE of the occupational accident rate and the fatal accident rate. The minimum value of SSE in the forestry was found in 2.8822 and 6.0055 in the occupational accident rate and fatal accident rate, respectively. Accordingly, ARIMA model in the forestry are ideally applied in the accident rate and fatal accident rate. Finally, this paper provides very efficient strategic method in order to prevent the accident of forestry through the trend of determined prediction model and analysis of accident data.

Developing the Pedestrian Accident Models of Intersections using Tobit Model (토빗모형을 이용한 교차로 보행자 사고모형 개발)

  • Lee, Seung Ju;Lim, Jin Kang;Park, Byung Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.154-159
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    • 2014
  • This study deals with the pedestrian accidents of intersections in case of Cheongju. The objective is to develop the pedestrian accident models using Tobit regression model. In pursuing the above, the pedestrian accident data from 2007 to 2011 were collected from TAAS data set of Road Traffic Authority. To analyze the accident, Poisson, negative binomial and Tobit regression models were utilized in this study. The dependent variable were the number of accident by intersection. Independent variables are traffic volume, intersection geometric structure and the transportation facility. The main results were as follows. First, Tobit model was judged to be more appropriate model than other models. Also, these models were analyzed to be statistically significant. Second, such the main variables related to accidents as traffic volume, pedestrian volume, number of traffic island, crossing length and the pedestrian countdown signal systems were adopted in the above model.

A study on maritime casualty investigations combining the SHEL and Hybrid model methods

  • Lee, Young-Chan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Engineering
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    • v.40 no.8
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    • pp.721-725
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    • 2016
  • This paper reviews the analysis of a given scenario according to the Hybrid Model, and why accident causation models are necessary in casualty investigations. The given scenario has been analyzed according to the Hybrid Model using its main five components, fallible decisions, line management, psychological precursors to unsafe acts, unsafe acts, and inadequate defenses. In addition, the differences between the SHEL and the Hybrid Model, and the importance of a safety barrier during an accident investigation, are shown in this paper. One unit of SHEL can be linked with another unit of SHEL. However, it cannot be used for the analysis of an accident. Therefore, we must use an accident causation model, which can be a Hybrid Model. This can explain the "How" and "Why" of accident, so it is a suitable model for analyzing them. During an accident investigation, the reason we focus on a safety barrier is to create another safety barrier or to change an existing safety barrier if that barrier fails. Hence, the paper shows how a sea accident can be investigated, and we propose a preventive way of avoiding the accident through combining the methods of different models for the future.

Forecasting and Evaluation of the Accident Rate and Fatal Accident in the Construction Industries (건설업에서 재해율과 업무상 사고 사망의 예측 및 평가)

  • Kang, Young-Sig
    • Journal of the Society of Korea Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2017
  • Many industrial accidents have occurred continuously in the manufacturing industries, construction industries, and service industries of Korea. Fatal accidents have occurred most frequently in the construction industries of Korea. Especially, the trend analysis of the accident rate and fatal accident rate is very important in order to prevent industrial accidents in the construction industries systematically. This paper considers forecasting of the accident rate and fatal accident rate with static and dynamic time series analysis methods in the construction industries. Therefore, this paper describes the optimal accident rate and fatal accident rate by minimization of the sum of square errors (SSE) among regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, proposed analytic function model (PAFM), and kalman filtering model (KFM) with existing accident data in construction industries. In this paper, microsoft foundation class (MFC) soft of Visual Studio 2008 was used to predict the accident rate and fatal accident rate. Zero Accident Program developed in this paper is defined as the predicted accident rate and fatal accident rate, the zero accident target time, and the zero accident time based on the achievement probability calculated rationally and practically. The minimum value for minimizing SSE in the construction industries was found in 0.1666 and 1.4579 in the accident rate and fatal accident rate, respectively. Accordingly, RAM and ARIMA model are ideally applied in the accident rate and fatal accident rate, respectively. Finally, the trend analysis of this paper provides decisive information in order to prevent industrial accidents in construction industries very systematically.

Accidents Model of Arterial Link Sections by Logistic Model (로지스틱모형을 이용한 가로구간 사고모형)

  • Park, Byung-Ho;Lim, Jin-Kang;Han, Su-San
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.90-95
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    • 2010
  • This study deals with the accident model of arterial link section in Cheongju. The objective is to develop the accident model of arterial link section using the logistic regression. In pursuing the above, the study uses the 258 accident data occurred at the 322 arterial link section. The main results are as follows. First, Nagellerke $R^2$ of developed accident model is analyzed to be 0.309 and t-values of variable that explains goodness of fit are evaluated to be significant. Second, the variables adopted in the model are AADT, the number of exit and entry. These variables are all analyzed to be statistically significant. Finally, the analysis of correct classification rate shows that the total accident of correct classification rate is analyzed to be 72.7% at the arterial link section.

A study for safety-accident analysis pattern extract model in semiconductor industry (반도체산업에서의 안전사고 분석 패턴 추출 모델 연구)

  • Yoon Yong-Gu;Park Peom
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management and Science
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2006
  • The present study has investigated the patterns and the causes of safety -accidents on the accident-data in semiconductor Industries through near miss report the cases in the advanced companies. The ratio of incomplete actions to incomplete state was 4 to 6 as the cases of accidents in semiconductor industries in the respect of Human-ware, Hard- ware, Environment-ware and System-ware. The ratio of Human to machine in the attributes of semiconductor accident was 4 to 1. The study also investigated correlation among the system related to production, accident, losses and time. In semiconductor industry, we found that pattern of safety-accident analysis is organized potential, interaction, complexity, medium. Therefore, this study find out that semiconductor model consists of organization, individual, task, machine, environment and system.

Developing the Pedestrian Accident Models Using Tobit Model (토빗모형을 이용한 가로구간 보행자 사고모형 개발)

  • Lee, Seung Ju;Kim, Yun Hwan;Park, Byung Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.101-107
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES : This study deals with the pedestrian accidents in case of Cheongju. The goals are to develop the pedestrian accident model. METHODS : To analyze the accident, count data models, truncated count data models and Tobit regression models are utilized in this study. The dependent variable is the number of accident. Independent variables are traffic volume, intersection geometric structure and the transportation facility. RESULTS : The main results are as follows. First, Tobit model was judged to be more appropriate model than other models. Also, these models were analyzed to be statistically significant. Second, such the main variables related to accidents as traffic volume, pedestrian volume, number of Entry/exit, number of crosswalk and bus stop were adopted in the above model. CONCLUSIONS : The optimal model for pedestrian accidents is evaluated to be Tobit model.