• Title/Summary/Keyword: SUFI-2

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The Relationship between Parameters of the SWAT Model and the Geomorphological Characteristics of a Watershed (SWAT 모형의 매개변수와 유역의 지형학적 특성 관계)

  • Lee, Woong Hee;Lee, Ji Haeng;Park, Ji Hun;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2016
  • The correlation relationships and their corresponding equations between the geomorphological parameters and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model parameters by Sequential Uncertainty Fitting - version 2 (SUFI-2) algorithm of SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP) were developed at the Seom-river experimental watershed. The parameters of the SWAT model at the Soksa-river experimental watershed were estimated by the developed equations. The SWAT model parameters were estimated by SUFI-2 algorithm of SWAT-CUP with rainfall-runoff data from the Soksa-river experimental watershed from 2000 to 2007. Rainfall-runoff simulation of the SWAT model was carried out at the Soksa-river experimental watershed from 2000 to 2007 for the applicability of the estimated parameters by the developed equations. The root mean square errors (RMSE) between the observed and the simulated rainfall-runoffs using the estimated parameters by developed equations of correlation analysis and the optimum parameters by SUFI-2 of SWAT-CUP were $1.09m^3/s$ and $0.93m^3/s$ respectively at the Soksa-river experimental watershed from 2000 to 2007. Therefore, it is considered that the parameter estimation of the SWAT model by the geomorphological characteristics parameters has applicability.

Parameter Estimation of SWAT Model Using SWAT-CUP in Seom-river Experimental Watershed (섬강시험유역에서 SWAT-CUP을 이용한 SWAT모형 매개변수 추정)

  • Choi, Heung Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.529-536
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    • 2013
  • The semi-distributed rainfall runoff model of SWAT is applied to the Seom-river experimental watershed. The simulations of various antecedent periods before the targeted simulation periods of 2002 to 2009 are not necessary despite of the slight appearance of corresponding changes in simulated total runoff. The simulated results of total runoff by using various numbers of soil layer maps have little differentiated nevertheless the slight changes in simulated results have been appeared. The 7 parameters of CANMX, $CN_2$, ESCO, GW_REVAP, SOL_ALB, SOL_AWC, and SOL_K greatly govern the rainfall runoff are confirmed and their sensitivity analyses have been carried out. The optimal parameters used in SWAT are derived by SUFI-2 of SWAT-CUP. The NS and $R^2$ are 0.99 and 0.98, respectively which is shown the good agreement between the observed and the simulated results. The uncertainty factors of P-factor and R-factor are 0.85 and 0.06, respectively which is also shown the high efficiency of the model. The high applicability is also shown with improving the RMSE in SWAT model simulation using the parameters estimated by SUFI-2 of SWAT-CUP.

Comparing Prediction Uncertainty Analysis Techniques of SWAT Simulated Streamflow Applied to Chungju Dam Watershed (충주댐 유역의 유출량에 대한 SWAT 모형의 예측 불확실성 분석 기법 비교)

  • Joh, Hyung-Kyung;Park, Jong-Yoon;Jang, Cheol-Hee;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.9
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    • pp.861-874
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    • 2012
  • To fulfill applicability of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, it is important that this model passes through a careful calibration and uncertainty analysis. In recent years, many researchers have come up with various uncertainty analysis techniques for SWAT model. To determine the differences and similarities of typical techniques, we applied three uncertainty analysis procedures to Chungju Dam watershed (6,581.1 $km^2$) of South Korea included in SWAT-Calibration Uncertainty Program (SWAT-CUP): Sequential Uncertainty FItting algorithm ver.2 (SUFI2), Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), Parameter Solution (ParaSol). As a result, there was no significant difference in the objective function values between SUFI2 and GLUE algorithms. However, ParaSol algorithm shows the worst objective functions, and considerable divergence was also showed in 95PPU bands with each other. The p-factor and r-factor appeared from 0.02 to 0.79 and 0.03 to 0.52 differences in streamflow respectively. In general, the ParaSol algorithm showed the lowest p-factor and r-factor, SUFI2 algorithm was the highest in the p-factor and r-factor. Therefore, in the SWAT model calibration and uncertainty analysis of the automatic methods, we suggest the calibration methods considering p-factor and r-factor. The p-factor means the percentage of observations covered by 95PPU (95 Percent Prediction Uncertainty) band, and r-factor is the average thickness of the 95PPU band.

Application of SWAT-CUP for Streamflow Auto-calibration at Soyang-gang Dam Watershed (소양강댐 유역의 유출 자동보정을 위한 SWAT-CUP의 적용 및 평가)

  • Ryu, Jichul;Kang, Hyunwoo;Choi, Jae Wan;Kong, Dong Soo;Gum, Donghyuk;Jang, Chun Hwa;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.347-358
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    • 2012
  • The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) should be calibrated and validated with observed data to secure accuracy of model prediction. Recently, the SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Program for SWAT) software, which can calibrate SWAT using various algorithms, were developed to help SWAT users calibrate model efficiently. In this study, three algorithms (GLUE: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, PARASOL: Parameter solution, SUFI-2: Sequential Uncertainty Fitting ver. 2) in the SWAT-CUP were applied for the Soyang-gang dam watershed to evaluate these algorithms. Simulated total streamflow and 0~75% percentile streamflow were compared with observed data, respectively. The NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) and $R^2$ (Coefficient of Determination) values were the same from three algorithms but the P-factor for confidence of calibration ranged from 0.27 to 0.81 . the PARASOL shows the lowest p-factor (0.27), SUFI-2 gives the greatest P-factor (0.81) among these three algorithms. Based on calibration results, the SUFI-2 was found to be suitable for calibration in Soyang-gang dam watershed. Although the NSE and $R^2$ values were satisfactory for total streamflow estimation, the SWAT simulated values for low flow regime were not satisfactory (negative NSE values) in this study. This is because of limitations in semi-distributed SWAT modeling structure, which cannot simulated effects of spatial locations of HRUs (Hydrologic Response Unit) within subwatersheds in SWAT. To solve this problem, a module capable of simulating groundwater/baseflow should be developed and added to the SWAT system. With this enhancement in SWAT/SWAT-CUP, the SWAT estimated streamflow values could be used in determining standard flow rate in TMDLs (Total Maximum Daily Load) application at a watershed.

Flow Calibration and Validation of Daechung Lake Watershed, Korea Using SWAT-CUP (SWAT-CUP을 이용한 대청호 유역 장기 유출 유량 보정 및 검증)

  • Lee, Eun-Hyoung;Seo, Dong-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.9
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    • pp.711-720
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    • 2011
  • SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was calibrated for the flow rate of the Deachung lake with a large area of 3108.29 $km^2$. Application of SWAT model requires significant number of input data and is prone to result in uncertainties due to errors in input data, model structure and model parameters. The SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Ver. 2) program and GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) program in SWAT-CUP (SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Program) are used to select the best parameters for SWAT model. Optimal combination of parameter values was determined through 2,000 iterative SWAT model runs. The Nash-Sutcliffe values and $R^2$ values were 0.87 and 0.89 respectively indicating both methods show good agreements with observed data successfully. RMSE and MSE values also showed similar results for both programs. It seems the SWAT-CUP has a great practical appeal for parameter optimization especially for large basin area and it also can be used for less experienced SWAT model users.

Large Scale Rainfall-runoff Analysis Using SWAT Model: Case Study: Mekong River Basin (SWAT 모형을 이용한 대유역 강우-유출해석: 메콩강 유역을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Dae Eop;Yu, Wan Sik;Lee, Gi Ha
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.60 no.1
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2018
  • This study implemented the rainfall-runoff analysis of the Mekong River basin using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The runoff analysis was simulated for 2000~2007, and 11 parameters were calibrated using the SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting-version 2) algorithm of SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Program). As a result of analyzing optimal parameters and sensitivity analysis for 6 cases, the parameter ALPHA_BF was found to be the most sensitive. The reproducibility of the rainfall-runoff results decreased with increasing number of stations used for parameter calibration. The rainfall-runoff simulation results of Case 6 showed that the RMSE of Nong Khai and Kratie stations were 0.97 and 0.9, respectively, and the runoff patterns were relatively accurately simulated. The runoff patterns of Mukdahan and Khong Chaim stations were underestimated during the flood season from 2004 to 2005 but it was acceptable in terms of the overall runoff pattern. These results suggest that the combination of SWAT and SWAT-CUP models is applicable to very large watersheds such as the Mekong for rainfall-runoff simulation, but further studies are needed to reduce the range of modeling uncertainty.

The Uncertainty Analysis of SWAT Simulated Streamflow Applied to Chungju Dam Watershed (충주댐 유역의 유출량에 대한 SWAT모형의 예측불확실성 분석)

  • Joh, Hyung-Kyung;Park, Jong-Yoon;Shin, Hyung-Jin;Lee, Ji-Wan;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.29-29
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    • 2011
  • SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형은 물리적 기반의 준분포형 강우-유출 모형으로서, 대규모의 복잡한 유역에서 장기간에 걸친 다양한 종류의 토양과 토지이용 및 토지관리 상태에 따른 유출과 유사 및 오염물질의 거동에 대한 토지관리 방법의 영향을 예측이 가능하여, 수자원 관리 계획 및 유역관리를 위한 의사결정 지원 등 그 적용 범위가 매우 광범위하다. 이러한 모형의 적용성 검증을 위해서는 매개변수 민감도 분석 및 검 보정, 예측 불확실성 분석을 필요로 한다. 최근 수문 모델의 불확실성을 분석하기 위한 다양한 기법들이 개발 되었는데, 본 연구는 충주댐 유역(6,581.1 m)을 대상으로 유역출구점의 실측 일 유출량 자료(1998~2003)를 바탕으로 SWAT 모형의 유출관련 매개변수(총 18개)에 대한 불확실성 분석을 실시하였다. 이때 사용된 분석 기법으로는 SUFI2 (Sequential Uncertainty FItting algorithm 2), GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation), ParaSol (Parameter Solution)등을 적용 하였다. 이러한 기법은 모두 SWAT-CUP (SWAT-Calibration Uncertainty Program, Abbaspour, 2007) 모형에 탑재되어있으며, 모형의 결과로써 검 보정, 매개변수의 민감도 분석, 각종 목적 함수 및 불확실성의 범위 등이 자동으로 산출 되므로 모형의 사용자가 불확실성 평가 기법의 분석 및 비교를 손쉽게 할 수 있다. 그 결과 대표적인 목적 함수인 결정 계수( $^2$)와 NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency)는 모두 0.65에서 0.92사이의 값을 나타내어 대체적으로 모의가 잘 이루어졌음을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 불확실성의 범위를 나타내는 지표인 p-factor 및 r-factor에서는 평가 기법 별로 그 차이가 확연하게 드러났다. 여기서 p-factor는 불확실성 범위에 실측치가 포함되는 비율이며, r-factor는 불확실성의 상대적인 범위로 각각 1과 0에 가까울수록 모의 기법의 성능이 우수함을 의미한다. 세 가지 알고리듬 중에서 SUFI2의 p-factor가 약 0.51로 가장 높게 나타났으며, ParaSol의 r-factor가 0.00으로 가장 작게 나타났다. 여기서 p-factor는 불확실성 범위에 실측치가 포함되는 비율이며, r-factor는 불확실성의 상대적인 범위를 의미한다. 본 연구의 결과는 SWAT 모형을 이용한 수문모델링에서 수문분석에 따른 예측결과의 불확실성을 정량적으로 평가함으로서, 모형의 적용성 평가 및 모의결과의 신뢰성 확보에 근거자료로 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

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Uncertainty Analysis on the Simulations of Runoff and Sediment Using SWAT-CUP (SWAT-CUP을 이용한 유출 및 유사모의 불확실성 분석)

  • Kim, Minho;Heo, Tae-Young;Chung, Sewoong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.681-690
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    • 2013
  • Watershed models have been increasingly used to support an integrated management of land and water, non-point source pollutants, and implement total daily maximum load policy. However, these models demand a great amount of input data, process parameters, a proper calibration, and sometimes result in significant uncertainty in the simulation results. For this reason, uncertainty analysis is necessary to minimize the risk in the use of the models for an important decision making. The objectives of this study were to evaluate three different uncertainty analysis algorithms (SUFI-2: Sequential Uncertainty Fitting-Ver.2, GLUE: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, ParaSol: Parameter Solution) that used to analyze the sensitivity of the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) parameters and auto-calibration in a watershed, evaluate the uncertainties on the simulations of runoff and sediment load, and suggest alternatives to reduce the uncertainty. The results confirmed that the parameters which are most sensitive to runoff and sediment simulations were consistent in three algorithms although the order of importance is slightly different. In addition, there was no significant difference in the performance of auto-calibration results for runoff simulations. On the other hand, sediment calibration results showed less modeling efficiency compared to runoff simulations, which is probably due to the lack of measurement data. It is obvious that the parameter uncertainty in the sediment simulation is much grater than that in the runoff simulation. To decrease the uncertainty of SWAT simulations, it is recommended to estimate feasible ranges of model parameters, and obtain sufficient and reliable measurement data for the study site.

Hydrologic component analysis using global meteorological data in Awash basin, Ethiopia (글로벌 기상자료를 이용한 Awash 유역의 수문성분해석)

  • Tolera, Mesfin;Chung, Il-Moon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.334-334
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    • 2018
  • 에티오피아 Awash 하천유역의 수자원은 경제적, 사회적, 생태적으로 매우 중요하다. 하지만 이 지역에 신뢰성 높은 기상자료의 확보가 매우 어렵기 때문에 Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)의 글로벌 기상자료를 이용한 수문성분해석결과와 기존의 제한된 기상자료를 활용한 결과를 비교하여 향후 두 자료를 적절히 활용하는 방안을 모색하였다. 수문모형은 글로벌 적용이 가능한 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)을 활용하였고, 상이한 자료를 이용하여 구한 모형의 성능은 두 지점의 관측 유출량과의 비교를 통해 검토하였다. 매개변수의 보정은 Sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2)방법을 이용하였다. Keleta 및 Melka Kunture 소유역에서의 유출량을 비교한 결과 기존의 가용 기상자료를 활용하여 구한 결과에 비해 CFSR 글로벌 기상자료를 이용한 결과가 보다 양호한 것으로 나타났다. 특히 유역면적이 Keleta소유역에 비해 6배가 큰 Melka Kunture 유역에서 CFSR 기상자료를 이용하여 산정한 유출량이 더욱 정확한 것으로 나타나 유역면적이 큰 곳에서 글로벌 자료의 활용성은 더욱 높은 것으로 확인되었다. 글로벌 기상자료의 활용은 아프리카의 대부분 지역과 같이 확보된 기상자료가 부족한 곳에서 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것으로 전망되었다.

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Development of SWMM LID auto-calibration tool (SWMM LID 자동 보정 tool 개발)

  • Ryu, Ji-Chul;Kang, Hyun-Woo;Choi, Jae-Wan;Kong, Dong-Soo;Lim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.539-539
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    • 2012
  • 최근 미국 환경부에서는 국가 환경 정책으로써 LID(Low Impact Development)를 대안 책으로 제시하고 있으며 우리나라에서도 최근 LID기법 연구가 활발히 진행 되고 있다. LID란 기존의 집중식 BMP처럼 유출 발생 후 처리를 다루는 방식의 기법이 아닌 발생원 단계에서의 처리에 초점을 맞춘 기법이다. 환경적 측면에서 다양한 기능을 가능하게 할 수 있는 LID기법 적용에 따른 효과를 알아보기 위해 전 세계적으로 SWMM 모형이 많이 사용되고 있지만 SWMM 모형 내 유량 및 수질에 따른 자동 보정 툴이 존재하지 않고 유역에 적합한 최적의 LID 기법 구조물의 설계 기준을 정할 수 있는 툴이 존재하지 않기 때문에 보다 효율적인 유역의 수문 보정 및 LID 기법 적용에 따른 효과 모의를 제공하지 못한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 SWMM 5.0 버전 내 SWMM LID auto-calibration tool을 PARASOL 알고리즘을 기반으로 개발하였다. 또한 개발된 PARASOL 알고리즘 기반 SWMM LID auto-calibration tool을 이용하여 경기도 경안천 유역에 적용하였고 2011년 일별 실측 수문자료와 비교 분석 하였으며 경기도 경안천 유역에 맞는 최적의 LID기법을 산정하였다. 본 연구에서 개발 된 SWMM auto-calibration tool은 SWMM 모형의 유량 및 수질을 자동으로 보정하기 때문에 보다 효율적인 모형의 보정을 사용자에게 제공해 줄 수 있을 것이며 유역에 적합한 최적의 LID 기법 구조물 설계를 제시해 줄 수 있기 때문에 향후 LID 기법을 이용한 도시개발 계획에 유용하게 사용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 향후 PARASOL 알고리즘 뿐만이 아닌 GLUE, SUFI-2, GA 등 다양한 알고리즘이 추가된 SWMM LID auto-calibration tool 을 개발 중에 있다.

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