• Title/Summary/Keyword: Negative Binomial Model

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A Study on the Determinants of Drinking Demand and Expenditure of College Students

  • Lee, Seung-gil
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.215-224
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the factors that affect college students' drinking needs and spending. An analysis model to estimate the determinants affecting drinking needs was applied with a truncated Poisson model and a truncated negative binomial model. Tests to select more appropriate models of the two types were made using the comparison of log-likelihood function and the over-dispersion test. The analysis result was interpreted by applying the truncated negative binomial model as the truncated Poisson model showed over-dispersion. We also applied the Tobit model to analyze the determinantsthat affect college students' expenditure on drinking. According to the analysis, gender, grade, allowance and parental occupation were the factors influencing statistics, and gender, type of household income, and student religion were the factors influencing expenditure.

Evaluating the Economic Damages to Anglers of the Marine Recreational Charter due to the Herbei Spirit Vessel Oil Spill (허베이 스피리트호의 기름유출에 따른 바다유어낚시어선 이용객의 경제적 손실평가연구)

  • Pyo, Heedong
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.289-302
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    • 2014
  • This paper aims to evaluate the indirect economic damages to anglers of the marine recreational charter caused by marine pollution associated with the Herbei Spirit vessel, which spilled 12,547 kl of crude oil in Taean coastal areas in December 2007. In order to evaluate the indirect cost to anglers of the charter fishing, consumer surplus for charter fishing is estimated using a Poisson model (PM), a negative binomial model (NBM), a truncated Poisson model (TPM), and a truncated negative binomial model (TNBM), which account for the characteristics of count data (non-negative discrete data), for individual travel cost method (ITCM). Because of over-dispersion problem in PM and TPM, NBM and TNBM are considered to be more appropriate statistically. All parameters such as income, fishing careers, travel cost and catch that are estimated are statistically significant and theoretically valid. Based on TNBM results, consumer surplus per trip and per person was estimated to be 277 thousand won, total consumer surplus per person and per year about 2.3 million won, and the marginal effect of consumer surplus on % changes in catch rate is about 33 thousand won. The consumer surplus was converted into total indirect economic damages for aggregation which are evaluated to be 125 billion won, reflecting the number of anglers and damage rate.

Estimating Consumer Surplus for Recreational Sea Fishing using Individual Travel Cost Method (개별여행비용법을 이용한 바다 유어 낚시의 소비자 잉여추정)

  • Pyo, Hee-Dong;Park, Cheol-Hyung;Chung, Jin-Ho
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.141-148
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    • 2008
  • This paper aims at estimating consumer surplus for recreational sea fishing in Tongyeong coastal area using individual travel cost method. A Poisson model (PM), a negative binomial model (NBM), a truncated Poisson model (TPM), and a truncated negative binomial model (TNBM) are applied for individual travel cost method in order to account characteristics of count data (non-negative discrete data.) The survey was conducted for 462 inshore anglers using personal interview method in Tongyeong during July and October 2007. Respondents were asked about how often they do fishing, travel costs, catch, income, and so on. Because of over-dispersion problem in PM and TPM, NBM and TNBM were considered to be more appropriate statistically. All parameters estimated are statistically significant and theoretically valid. As the results based on TNBM, consumer surplus per trip was estimated to be 183,486 won, total consumer surplus per person and per year 3,399,658 won, and the marginal effect of consumer surplus on % changes in catch rate is 185,372 won.

Estimating the Economic Value of Recreational Fishing in the Jeonnam Marine Ranching Area (여행비용모형을 이용한 전남 바다목장 해역 유어활동의 경제적 가치 추정)

  • Seo, Ju-Nam;Kim, Do-Hoon;Kang, Sung-Kyung
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2012
  • This study aimed to estimate the economic value of the recreational fishing in the Jeonnam marine ranching area as a part of the total socioeconomic evaluation of the Jeonnam marine ranching program. A travel cost method was applied to the estimation of economic value of the recreational fishing in the Jeonnam marine ranching area and input variables included annual fishing trip days, average travel cost per trip, average catch amount, monthly income, marriage, age, and personal perception on the marine ranching program. In the analysis, due to its characteristic of count data, both poisson model and negative binomial model were used. Model results indicated that a negative binomial model was statistically more suitable than the poisson model as the overdispersion problem occurred in the poisson model. All signs of the estimated parameters were estimated as previous studies showed. Based on the results, the economic value per trip of the recreational fishing in the Jeonnam marine ranching area was estimated to be 145,000 won and the annual total economic value of the recreational fishing in the Jeonnam marine ranching area was analyzed to be 2,514,000 won. In addition, the change of total value by catch rate showed that the economic value could be increased by 180,900 won as the catch increased by one kilogram.

Effects of ICT Device Ownership on Consumers' Digital Piracy Behavior

  • Sim, Hyeonbo;Kim, Minki;Moon, Junghoon
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.169-196
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    • 2014
  • This study investigates how information and communication technology (ICT) can damage intellectual property rights (IPR) in the movie industry. Utilizing a survey questionnaire to gather information about the extensive use of ICT devices, including tablet PCs and smartphones, we demonstrate how digital piracy behavior is associated with various socio-demographic characteristics. Econometrically, since a large number of people do not engage in piracy activities, we adopt a zero-inflated negative binomial model. We find that people with tablet PCs are more likely to engage in the piracy of movies from peer-to-peer (P2P) sites. In particular, when we categorize ICT devices based on whether they are portable and allow downloads, we find that people with devices equipped with both functions are most likely to engage in movie piracy.

A Study on the Evaluation of Economic Value of the Gulf of Mexico Recreational Red Grouper Fishery (여행비용모형 분석을 통한 유어(遊漁)활동의 경제적 가치 추정 -미국 멕시코만 Red Grouper 유어부문을 대상으로 -)

  • Kim, Do-Hoon
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.36 no.2 s.68
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    • pp.121-134
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    • 2005
  • In order to evaluate the effectiveness of management measures and to provide policy suggestions for the allocation of total allowable catch between recreational and commercial sectors, the economic value of red grouper recreational fishery in the United States Gulf of Mexico was estimated using a Travel Cost Method(TCM), Due to the characteristic of count data, a Poisson model(PM) and a Negative binomial model(NBM) were used in the TCM. Results of models showed that the NBM was statistically more suitable than the PM since the overdispersion problem occurred in the PM. Results also indicated all signs of the estimated parameters were as expected and were significant, except for a Boat parameter in both models. Based on the results of NBM, the total economic value of the recreational red grouper fishery was estimated to be $\$698.6$ and the value per trip was $\$179.5$. In addition, the total changes in expected consumer surplus due to changes in catch rates was $ \$42.3$.

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Estimating the Economic Value of the Songieong Beach Using A Count Data Model: - Off-season Estimating Value of the Beach - (가산자료모형을 이용한 송정 해수욕장의 경제적 가치추정: - 비수기 해수욕장의 가치추정 -)

  • Heo, Yun-Jeong;Lee, Seung-Lae
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.79-101
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the Songieong Beach in Off-season, using a Individual Travel Cost Model(ITCM). Songieong Beach is located in Busan but far away from city. These days, however, the increased rate of traffic inflow to the Songieong beach and the five-day working week are reflected in the trend analysis. Moreover, people have changed psychological value. For that reason, visitors are on the increase on the beach in off-season. The ITCM is applied to estimate non-market value or environmental Good like a Contingent Valuation Method and Hedonic Price Model etc. The ITCM was derived from the Count Data Model(i.e. Poisson and Negative Binomial model). So this paper compares Poisson and negative binomial count data models to measure the tourism demands. The data for the study were collected from the Songjeong Beach on visitors over the a week from November 1 through November 23, 2006. Interviewers were instructed to interview only individuals. So the sample was taken in 113. A dependent variable that is defined on the non-negative integers and subject to sampling truncation is the result of a truncated count data process. This paper analyzes the effects of determinants on visitors' demand for exhibition using a class of maximum-likelihood regression estimators for count data from truncated samples, The count data and truncated models are used primarily to explain non-negative integer and truncation properties of tourist trips as suggested by the economic valuation literature. The results suggest that the truncated negative binomial model is improved overdispersion problem and more preferred than the other models in the study. This paper is not the same as the others. One thing is that Estimating Value of the Beach in off-season. The other thing is this study emphasizes in particular 'travel cost' that is not only monetary cost but also including opportunity cost of 'travel time'. According to the truncated negative binomial model, estimates the Consumer Surplus(CS) values per trip of about 199,754 Korean won and the total economic value was estimated to be 1,288,680 Korean won.

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A Development of Traffic Accident Model by Random Parameter : Focus on Capital Area and Busan 4-legs Signalized Intersections (확률모수를 이용한 교통사고예측모형 개발 -수도권 및 부산광역시 4지 교차로를 대상으로-)

  • Lee, Geun-Hee;Rho, Jeong-Hyun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2015
  • This study intends to build a traffic accident predictive model considering road geometrics, traffic and enviromental characteristics and identify the relationship of 4-legs intersection accidents in Seoul and Busan metropolitan area. The RPNB(Random Parameter Negative Binomial) model shows improvement over the fixed NB(Negative Binomial) and out of 53 variables, 10 variables (main road number of lane, main road vehicle traffic volume(left), minor road vehicle traffic volume(right), main road drive restriction, minor road sight distance, minor road median strip, minor road speed limit, minor road speed restriction) showed to have significant variables affecting traffic accident occurrences in 4-legs signilized intersections. Also, among 10 significant variables, 2 variables(minor road sight distance, minor road speed restriction) found to be random parameters.

An Analysis on the Determinants of Employed Labour Quantity in the Fishing Industry (어가의 고용량 결정요인 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Hyun;Park, Cheol-Hyung;Nam, Jongoh
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.545-567
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    • 2018
  • This study applied and compared Poisson model, negative binomial model, zero inflated Poisson model, and zero inflated negative binomial model to estimate determinants of employed labour quantity. To estimate each of models, this study used fisheries census data which were obtained at microdata integrated service running by Statistics Korea. The study selected zero inflated negative binomial model according to the Vuong test and Likelihood-ratio test. In addition, the study estimated fishing village's practical changes on employed labour quantity as analyzing changes from 2010 to 2015. The results showed that the household with fishing vessels and high selling price had a significant effect on decrease of the labour quantities. Meanwhile, the longer work experience of the household, the more significant the increase in the labour quantities. In conclusion, this study presented that capitalized fishing household and the acceleration of aging had a significant impact on the change in the labour quantities.

Development of Traffic Accident Models at Rural Signalized Intersections by Day and Night (지방부 신호교차로 주·야간 교통사고 예측모형 개발 및 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Geunhee;Jung, Sang Woon;Park, Minho;Lee, Dongmin;Roh, Jeonghyun
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.107-115
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    • 2015
  • PURPOSES : The purposes of this study are to compare the day and night characteristics and to develop the models of traffic accidents. in Rural Signalized Intersections METHODS : To develop day and night traffic accident models using the Negative Binomial Model, which was constructed for 156 signalized intersections of rural areas, through field investigations and casualty data from the National Police Agency. RESULTS : Among a total of 17 variances, the daytime traffic accident estimate models identified a total of 9 influence factors of traffic accidents. In the case of nighttime traffic accident models, 11 influence factors of traffic accidents were identified. CONCLUSIONS : By comparing the two models, it was determined that the number of main roads was an independent factor for daytime accidents. For nighttime accidents, several factors were independently involved, including the number of entrances to sub-roads, whether left turn lanes existed in major roads, the distances of pedestrian crossings to main roads and sub-roads, lighting facilities, and others. It was apparent that if the same situation arises, the probability of an accident occurring at night is higher than during the day because the speed of travel through intersections in rural areas is somewhat higher at night than during the day.