• Title, Summary, Keyword: Monte Carlo simulation

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Application of Fuzzy Math Simulation to Quantitative Risk Assessment in Pork Production (돈육 생산공정에서의 정량적 위해 평가에 fuzzy 연산의 적용)

  • Im, Myung-Nam;Lee, Seung-Ju
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.589-593
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    • 2006
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of fuzzy math strategy to calculate variability and uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment. We compared the propagation of uncertainty using fuzzy math simulation with Monte Carlo simulation. The risk far Listeria monocytogenes contamination was estimated for carcass and processed pork by fuzzy math and Monte Carlo simulations, respectively. The data used in these simulations were taken from a recent report on pork production. In carcass, the mean values for the risk from fuzzy math and Monte Carlo simulations were -4.393 log $CFU/cm^2$ and -4.589 log $CFU/cm^2$, respectively; in processed pork, they were -4.185 log $CFU/cm^2$ and -4.466 log $CFU/cm^2$ respectively. The distribution of values obtained using the fuzzy math simulation included all of the results obtained using the Monte Carlo simulation. Consequently, fuzzy math simulation was found to be a good alternative to Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative risk assessment of pork production.

Stochastic Analysis for Vehicle Dynamics using the Monte-Carlo Simulation (Monte-Carlo 시뮬레이션을 이용한 확률적 차량동역학 해석)

  • Tak, Tae-Oh;Joo, Jae-hoon
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.22 no.B
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    • pp.3-12
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    • 2002
  • Monte-Carlo simulation technique has advantages over deterministic simulation in various engineering analysis since Monte-Carlo simulation can take into consideration of scattering of various design variables, which is inherent characteristics of physical world. In this work, Monte-Carlo simulation of steady-state cornering behavior of a truck with design variables like hard points and busing stiffness. The purpose of the simulation is to improve understeer gradient of the truck, which exhibits a small amount of instability when the lateral acceleration is about 0.4g. Through correlation analysis, design variables that have high impacts on the cornering behavior were selected, and significant performance improvement has been achieved by appropriately changing the high impact design variables.

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Development of Ion Beam Monte Carlo Simulation and Analysis of Focused Ion Beam Processing (이온빔 몬테 카를로 시물레이션 프로그램 개발 및 집속 이온빔 공정 해석)

  • Kim, Heung-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.479-486
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    • 2012
  • Two of fundamental approaches that can be used to understand ion-solid interaction are Monte Carlo (MC) and Molecular Dynamic (MD) simulations. For the simplicity of simulation Monte Carlo simulation method is widely preferred. In this paper, basic consideration and algorithm of Monte Carlo simulation will be presented as well as simulation results. Sputtering caused by incident ion beam will be discussed with distribution of sputtered particles and their energy distributions. Redeposition of sputtered particles that are experienced refraction at the substrate-vacuum interface additionally presented. In addition, reflection of incident ions with reflection coefficient will be presented together with spatial and energy distributions. This Monte Carlo simulation will be useful in simulating and describing ion beam related processes such as Ion beam induced deposition/etching process, local nano-scale distribution of focused ion beam implanted ions, and ion microscope imaging process etc.

Efficient Monte Carlo simulation procedures in structural uncertainty and reliability analysis - recent advances

  • Schueller, G.I.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2009
  • The present contribution addresses uncertainty quantification and uncertainty propagation in structural mechanics using stochastic analysis. Presently available procedures to describe uncertainties in load and resistance within a suitable mathematical framework are shortly addressed. Monte Carlo methods are proposed for studying the variability in the structural properties and for their propagation to the response. The general applicability and versatility of Monte Carlo Simulation is demonstrated in the context with computational models that have been developed for deterministic structural analysis. After discussing Direct Monte Carlo Simulation for the assessment of the response variability, some recently developed advanced Monte Carlo methods applied for reliability assessment are described, such as Importance Sampling for linear uncertain structures subjected to Gaussian loading, Line Sampling in linear dynamics and Subset simulation. The numerical example demonstrates the applicability of Line Sampling to general linear uncertain FE systems under Gaussian distributed excitation.

A Kinetic Monte Carlo Simulation of Individual Site Type of Ethylene and α-Olefins Polymerization

  • Zarand, S.M. Ghafelebashi;Shahsavar, S.;Jozaghkar, M.R.
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.62 no.3
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    • pp.191-202
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    • 2018
  • The aim of this work is to study Monte Carlo simulation of ethylene (co)polymerization over Ziegler-Natta catalyst as investigated by Chen et al. The results revealed that the Monte Carlo simulation was similar to sum square error (SSE) model to prediction of stage II and III of polymerization. In the case of activation stage (stage I) both model had slightly deviation from experimental results. The modeling results demonstrated that in homopolymerization, SSE was superior to predict polymerization rate in current stage while for copolymerization, Monte Carlo had preferable prediction. The Monte Carlo simulation approved the SSE results to determine role of each site in total polymerization rate and revealed that homopolymerization rate changed from site to site and order of center was different compared to copolymerization. The polymer yield was reduced by addition of hydrogen amount however there was no specific effect on uptake curve which was predicted by Monte Carlo simulation with good accuracy. In the case of copolymerization it was evolved that monomer chain length and monomer concentration influenced the rate of polymerization as rate of polymerization reduced from 1-hexene to 1-octene and increased when monomer concentration proliferate.

Monte Carlo Simulation of Ion Implantation Profiles Calibrated for Various Ions over Wide Energy Range

  • Suzuki, Kunihiro;Tada, Yoko;Kataoka, Yuji;Nagayama, Tsutomu
    • JSTS:Journal of Semiconductor Technology and Science
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2009
  • Monte Carlo simulation is widely used for predicting ion implantation profiles in amorphous targets. Here, we compared Monte Carlo simulation results with a vast database of ion implantation secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS), and showed that the Monte Carlo data sometimes deviated from the experimental data. We modified the electron stopping power model, calibrated its parameters, and reproduced most of the database. We also demonstrated that Monte Carlo simulation can accurately predict profiles in a low energy range of around 1keV once it is calibrated in the higher energy region.

Evaluation of Probabilistic Finite Element Method in Comparison with Monte Carlo Simulation

  • 이재영;고홍석
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.32 no.E
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 1990
  • Abstract The formulation of the probabilistic finite element method was briefly reviewed. The method was implemented into a computer program for frame analysis which has the same analogy as finite element analysis. Another program for Monte Carlo simulation of finite element analysis was written. Two sample structures were assumed and analized. The characteristics of the second moment statistics obtained by the probabilistic finite element method was examined through numerical studies. The applicability and limitation of the method were also evaluated in comparison with the data generated by Monte Carlo simulation.

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Probabilistic determination of initial cable forces of cable-stayed bridges under dead loads

  • Cheng, Jin;Xiao, Ru-Cheng;Jiang, Jian-Jing
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.267-279
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    • 2004
  • This paper presents an improved Monte Carlo simulation for the probabilistic determination of initial cable forces of cable-stayed bridges under dead loads using the response surfaces method. A response surface (i.e. a quadratic response surface without cross-terms) is used to approximate structural response. The use of the response surface eliminates the need to perform a deterministic analysis in each simulation loop. In addition, use of the response surface requires fewer simulation loops than conventional Monte Carlo simulation. Thereby, the computation time is saved significantly. The statistics (e.g. mean value, standard deviation) of the structural response are calculated through conventional Monte Carlo simulation method. By using Monte Carlo simulation, it is possible to use the existing deterministic finite element code without modifying it. Probabilistic analysis of a truss demonstrates the proposed method' efficiency and accuracy; probabilistic determination of initial cable forces of a cable-stayed bridge under dead loads verifies the method's applicability.

Physically Based Landslide Susceptibility Analysis Using a Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation in Sangju Area, Gyeongsangbuk-Do (Fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation을 이용한 물리 사면 모델 기반의 상주지역 산사태 취약성 분석)

  • Jang, Jung Yoon;Park, Hyuck Jin
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.239-250
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    • 2017
  • Physically based landslide susceptibility analysis has been recognized as an effective analysis method because it can consider the mechanism of landslide occurrence. The physically based analysis used the slope geometry and geotechnical properties of slope materials as input. However, when the physically based approach is adopted in regional scale area, the uncertainties were involved in the analysis procedure due to spatial variation and complex geological conditions, which causes inaccurate analysis results. Therefore, probabilistic method have been used to quantify these uncertainties. However, the uncertainties caused by lack of information are not dealt with the probabilistic analysis. Therefore, fuzzy set theory was adopted in this study because the fuzzy set theory is more effective to deal with uncertainties caused by lack of information. In addition, the vertex method and Monte Carlo simulation are coupled with the fuzzy approach. The proposed approach was used to evaluate the landslide susceptibility for a regional study area. In order to compare the analysis results of the proposed approach, Monte Carlo simulation as the probabilistic analysis and the deterministic analysis are used to analyze the landslide susceptibility for same study area. We found that Fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation showed the better prediction accuracy than the probabilistic analysis and the deterministic analysis.

A Study on Comparison between the Propagation of Uncertainty by GUM and Monte-Carlo Simulation (측정 불확도 표현 지침서(GUM)와 Monte-Carlo Simulation에 의한 불확도 전파 결과의 비교 연구)

  • Jungkee Shu;Hyungsik Min;Minsu Park;Jin-Chun Woo;Jongsang Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2003
  • The expanded uncertainties calculated by the application of GUM -approximation and Monte-Carlo simulation were compared about the model equation of one-point calibration which is widely used for the measurements and chemical analysis. For the comparisons, we assumed a set of artificial data at the various level of concentration and dispersion of t or normal distribution. Mistakes of more then 50 % was revealed at the values calculated by GUM-approximation in comparison with those of Monte-Carlo simulation because of the excess dispersion from t-distribution and non-linearity by division in the equation. In contrary, the mistake of calculation due to non-linearity of the equation was not observed in the level of detection limits with the equation of one-point calibration, because of the relatively large values of uncertainty in response.