• Title, Summary, Keyword: Income prediction

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Prediction of chemical fertilizer consumption in relation to soil fertility improvement and various agriculturai technical factors (토양비옥도(土壤肥沃度) 증진(增進) 및 제(諸) 기술요인(技術要因)에 의(依)한 비료(肥料) 소비추세(消費趨勢) 전망(展望))

  • Ryu, In-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.183-199
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    • 1976
  • 1. The cultivated land in Korea has originally low fertility resulting in high dependence to fertilizers. 2. The total fertilizer requirement calculated by the Office of Rural Development (ORD) in 1976 was about 1,153 thousand mts, and the total amount of supply planned by the Ministry of Agriculture and Fishery was 1,010 thoushand mts which is close to the amount calculated by ORD. However, there is some gap between the amount of recommended (N, 11.6; $P_2O_5$: $K_2O$, 7.3kg/10a> and supply planned (N, 12.0; $P_2O_5$, 6.3; $K_2O$. 4.8kg/10a) fertilizers for each elements per unit area 3. For 15 years from 1960 to 1975 the fertilizer consumption of nitrogen was roughly increased from 200,000 mts to 500,000 mts; phosphorus, from 50,000 to 250,000 mts; potassium, from 10, 000 to 170,000 mts; accounting 2.5, 5, and 17 times of increase respectively. 4. The total fertilizer consumption for 5 years from 1967 to 1971 was about 100,000 mts and another 5years from 1971 to 1975 was 300,000 mts indicating three times increase. 5. The direct factors influenced to the increase of fertilizer consumption in recent years are 1) the dissemination of high yielding Tongil type rice varieties which are resistant to heavy fertilization 2) high price policy for agricaltural products 3) increased cultivation of vegetables:, fruits, and forages which require high level of fertilizers. The indirect factors are 1) dissemination of new improved agricultural techniques, 2, improvement of cultivated land conditions through irrigation system and land reform, 3) increased supply of silicate fertilizers, and 4) increase of farm income. 6. The percentage of total fertilizer consumption by rice (32%) and barley (25%) is about 57%. The ratio of total fertilizer consumption by vegetables and forages is expected to increase greatly. 7. Based on the increasing tendency of cultivated land and yield per unit area for last 10 years in each crop, total fertilizer consumptions in 1980, 1990, and 2000 year are estimated to 1,290,000, 1,580,000 and 1,870,000 mts respectively.

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Determination of Nursing Price using Willingness to Pay (지불용의접근법을 이용한 간호서비스의 가격결정)

  • Ko, Su-Kyoung;Park, Jeong-Young
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing Administration
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.205-221
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    • 2001
  • It will become more and more popular to use the long-term care facilities and home health care services with the chronic disease increasing. It depends on how much the consumers would pay and purchase the services. They might get more benefits from that kind of services than from ordinary hospitalization. So far, the study of determining the medical service price has focused most often on the efforts from the providers' view. But it must be reasonable to include the consumers' value for the service. This study was performed to assess WTP(Willingness to Pay) for home health care service in order to apply to the determination of nursing price in a reasonable manner. In this study, respondents were asked if they would pay for the service's intangible benefits under the four different types(open-ended minimum WTP, open-ended maximum WTP, bidding WTP, referendum WTP). The contingent valuation method is a potentially useful tool in understanding how people value the benefits of the service. As a result, average open-ended minimum WTP was W16,015 per day among 65 respondents. Average open-ended maximum WTP was W29,154 per day among 65 respondents. Average bidding WTP was W26,300 per day among 65 respondents. Average referendum WTP was W22,200 per day among 70 respondents. The results of regression analyses were also consistent with theoretical prediction, e.g., increasing WTP with consumers' value for the service, state of patients, and household income. This study demonstrated that it was more reasonable to consider the consumers' value in determining the services' price. In addition, a further study is needed to test the validity of this CV method and to determine a proper nursing price based on the consumers' view.

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Forecasting of Electricity Demand for Fishing Industry Based on Genetic Algorithm approach (유전자 알고리즘에 기반한 수산업 전력 수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Heung-Soe;Lee, Sung-Geun
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.19-23
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    • 2017
  • Energy is a vital resource for the economic growth and the social development for any country. As the industry becomes more sophisticated and the economy more grows, the electricity demand is increasing. So forecasting electricity demand is an important for electricity suppliers. Forecasting electricity demand makes it possible to distribute electricity demand. As the market for Negawatt market began to grow in Korea from 2014, the prediction of electricity consumption demand becomes more important. Moreover, power consumption forecasting provides a way for demand management to be directly or indirectly participated by consumers in the electricity market. We use Genetic Algorithms to predict the energy demand of the fishing industry in Jeju Island by using GDP, per capita gross national income, value add, and domestic electricity consumption from 1999 to 2011. Genetic Algorithm is useful for finding optimal solutions in various fields. In this paper, genetic algorithm finds optimal parameters. The objective is to find the optimal value of the coefficients used to predict the electricity demand and to minimize the error rate between the predicted value and the actual power consumption values.

GPS Based Sensor Network Research for Prediction of Incident (GPS 기반 돌발 상황 예측을 위한 센서네트워크 연구)

  • Jung, Hui-Sok;Won, Dae-Ho;Yang, Yeon-Mo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • pp.454-456
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    • 2010
  • The demands for (a) individual vehicle has been gradually increasing recently due to increase of personal income and spare time. In 2009, the quantities of registered vehicles exceeds over 17,325,210 millions pieces, and the risks of traffic accidents and traffic jam are increasing days by days. It has some limitations to solve the problem of traffic jam by transportation facilities and causes lots of time and costs. For a possible solution, ITS(Intelligent Transport System) has been introduced, but it is an insufficient way for abrupt incidents or risks on roads. The riskiest matter on driving a vehicle is unforeseen situation. In this paper, the most efficient and economical system that communicates with a driver about unexpected accident by sensor network and GPS information, is introduced rather than a traditional method associated with lots of time and costs.

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A Study on Cost Prediction of Highway Operating Risk through a Case Study of Power Failure (정전사고 사례분석을 통한 고속도로 운영 위험비용 산정에 대한 연구)

  • Kwon, Yong-Hoon;Kim, Kyong-Ju;Lim, Won-Seok;Park, Chan-Jin;Chae, Myung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.78-90
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    • 2009
  • Recently, operation of highway is the complex digital Infrastructure based on complicated IT. The application of IT is increasing more and more in digital Infrastructure. Though IT is very convenient, if unpredicted operating risk of highway occurs, widespread damage can be large. When operating risk of highway occurs, road users are out of smoothly-run service because of the operating interruption. This risk causes unpredicted operating management cost and additional maintenance cost. It will excess over the planned operating cost, which may leads to users's unsafety and operator's insolvency because of income loss. Until now, related studies to find out the risk are not sufficient. The purpose of this study is to suggest risk cost items and to estimate the reasonable risk cost by using simulation method in case of occurring the huge power failure at the operating digitalized highway. This study indicates the several plans to hedge against risk cost and the management of highway project. From now on, it will be used as basic data to confirm the soundness of operating system in Digital Infrastructure.

AIDS-related Knowledge, Attitudes and AIDS-Education Needs of Male Workers in Seoul and Kyungki areas (성인 남성 직장인의 AIDS 관련 지식, 태도 및 보건교육 요구도 조사 -서울, 경기 일부 지역을 중심으로-)

  • 전미경;김초강;진기남
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 1999
  • AIDS (Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome) known as 20th century's pest is spreading rapidly internationally, and the number of patients are increasing. Since the prevention vaccine has not been developed yet, the only available effective method for preventing AIDS is the health education. Most of the AIDS-infected persons are males, and especially over twenties of age. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the knowledge and attitudes on AIDS of male workers. The purpose of this study is to examine the knowledge, attitudes and education-needs of male workers on AIDS. The data were collected by a questionnaire survey of 977 workers who work in Seoul and Kyungki areas from September 1 thru October 4, 1997. The results were as follows: 1. We examined the level of knowledge on AIDS transmission, symptoms, diagnoses, and prevention methods. Even though respondents had a moderate level of AIDS-related knowledge, still sizable numbers believed that AIDS could be transmitted through casual contact. White-collar workers, higher education groups, higher income groups or those with age thirties showed respectively higher level of knowledge than the other comparison groups. 2. 85% of the respondents recognized AIDS as a serious problem. Statistical analysis revealed that white-collar workers, higher education groups or those with age twenties had more positive attitudes towards a AIDS patient than their counterparts. 3. Over 80% of the respondents replied that AIDS education in schools, work places, social agencies or by mass-media was necessary. 62.8% of the respondents mentioned that government should play the major role in developing AIDS education program. 4. The prediction model of AIDS-education needs was examined with using the multiple logistic regression method. The education level and AIDS-related knowledge were turned to be statistically significant factors influencing positively the perceived needs of AIDS education.

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Applications of Innovation Adoption and Diffusion Theory to Demand Estimation for Communications and Media Converging (DMB) Services (혁신채택 및 확산이론의 통신방송융합(위성DMB) 서비스 수요추정 응용)

  • Sawng Yeong-Wha;Han Hyun-Soo
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.179-197
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    • 2005
  • This study examines market acceptance for DMB service, one of the touted new business models in Korea's next-generation mobile communications service market, using adoption end diffusion of innovation as the theoretical framework. Market acceptance for DMB service was assessed by predicting the demand for the service using the Bass model, and the demand variability over time was then analyzed by integrating the innovation adoption model proposed by Rogers (2003). In our estimation of the Bass model, we derived the coefficient of innovation and coefficient of imitation, using actual diffusion data from the mobile telephone service market. The maximum number of subscribers was estimated based on the result of a survey on satellite DMB service. Furthermore, to test the difference in diffusion pattern between mobile phone service and satellite DMB service, we reorganized the demand data along the diffusion timeline according to Rogers' innovation adoption model, using the responses by survey subjects concerning their respective projected time of adoption. The comparison of the two demand prediction models revealed that diffusion for both took place forming a classical S-curve. Concerning variability in demand for DMB service, our findings, much in agreement with Rogers' view, indicated that demand was highly variable over time and depending on the adopter group. In distinguishing adopters into different groups by time of adoption of innovation, we found that income and lifestyle (opinion leadership, novelty seeking tendency and independent decision-making) were variables with measurable impact. Among the managerial variables, price of reception device, contents type, subscription fees were the variables resulting in statistically significant differences. This study, as an attempt to measure the market acceptance for satellite DMB service, a leading next-generation mobile communications service product, stands out from related studies in that it estimates the nature and level of acceptance for specific customer categories, using theories of innovation adoption and diffusion and based on the result of a survey conducted through one-to-one interviews. The authors of this paper believe that the theoretical framework elaborated in this study and its findings can be fruitfully reused in future attempts to predict demand for new mobile communications service products.

Economics of Supercapitalism - How Does Economic Globalization Affect Social Capital Accumulation? In the case of 65 countries. - (슈퍼자본주의의 경제학 -세계화와 사회자본-)

  • Suh, Hanseok
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.25-47
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    • 2008
  • This paper tries to explore the impact of economic globalization on social capital accumulation. To investigate direct effect, we build a model and derive a proposition which can explain the relative decline in social capital brought about by market expansion. Besides direct effect, we also explore channel effect through democracy, government size, education attainment, and inequality. We estimate direct and channel effect of globalization using cross section of 65 countries data time period 1980-1999 using three-stage least squares(3SLS). Results are in line with predictions and clearly support that globalization significantly and negatively affects social capital accumulation. Channel effect also shows that globalization has a negative effect through aggravating income inequality while it has a positive effect through higher education attainment, higher level of democracy and larger government spending. Such a net negative channel effect reinforces our prediction. As a robustness check we estimate other sets of data and the result strongly supports our theory.

Application of the Neural Network to Predict the Adolescents' Computer Entertainment Behavior (청소년의 컴퓨터 오락추구 행동을 예측하기 위한 신경망 활용)

  • Lee, Hyejoo;Jung, Euihyun
    • The Journal of Korean Association of Computer Education
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2013
  • This study investigates the predictive model of the adolescents' computer entertainment behavior using neural network with the KYPS data (3449 in the junior high school; 1725 boys and 1724 girls). This study compares the results of neural network(model 1) to the logistic regression model and neural network(model 2) with the exact same variables used in logistic regression. The results reveal that the prediction of neural network model 1 is the highest among three models and with gender, computer use time, family income, the number of close friends, the number of misdeed friends, individual study time, self-control, private education time, leisure time, self-belief, stress, adaptation to school, and study related worries, the neural network model 1 predicts the computer entertainment behavior more efficiently. These results suggest that the neural network could be used for diagnosing and adjusting the adolescents' computer entertainment behavior.

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A Study on Development of the Korea Agricultural Population Forecasting Model and long-term Prediction (농가인구예측 모형 개발 및 중장기 전망)

  • Han, Suk-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.3797-3806
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    • 2015
  • A population decline in rural area is correlated with the number of household, with agricultural workers, as a result, affects the farming income. Agricultural population is a foundation of agriculture structure. Agricultural population decline influences agricultural policies to be implemented for the future and there is concern about slowdown in productivity. The purpose of this study is to build the ability to use the model and conduct applied analyses of various kinds and to make rational agricultural policies by forecasting and analyzing agricultural population change. Unlike previous studies, which have some assumptions about the giving-up farming rate (GFR) of the key points on the agricultural population model or, After estimating only one equation with respect to the total population, and then distribute by sex and age. This study was conducted to investigate the reactions are different from the farmhouse, gender, age by estimating giving-up farming rate (GFR) equations each gender & age. Through this research, we can find that Farm Population changes of the simulation can be performed for a variety of agricultural policy in conjunction with existing agricultural simulation models as well.