• Title, Summary, Keyword: Income prediction

검색결과 75건 처리시간 0.036초

외식프랜차이즈기업 부실예측모형 예측력 평가 (Evaluating Distress Prediction Models for Food Service Franchise Industry)

  • 김시중
    • 유통과학연구
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was evaluated to compare the predictive power of distress prediction models by using discriminant analysis method and logit analysis method for food service franchise industry in Korea. Research design, data and methodology: Forty-six food service franchise industry with high sales volume in the 2017 were selected as the sample food service franchise industry for analysis. The fourteen financial ratios for analysis were calculated from the data in the 2017 statement of financial position and income statement of forty-six food service franchise industry in Korea. The fourteen financial ratios were used as sample data and analyzed by t-test. As a result seven statistically significant independent variables were chosen. The analysis method of the distress prediction model was performed by logit analysis and multiple discriminant analysis. Results: The difference between the average value of fourteen financial ratios of forty-six food service franchise industry was tested through t-test in order to extract variables that are classified as top-leveled and failure food service franchise industry among the financial ratios. As a result of the univariate test appears that the variables which differentiate the top-leveled food service franchise industry to failure food service industry are income to stockholders' equity, operating income to sales, current ratio, net income to assets, cash flows from operating activities, growth rate of operating income, and total assets turnover. The statistical significances of the seven financial ratio independent variables were also confirmed by logit analysis and discriminant analysis. Conclusions: The analysis results of the prediction accuracy of each distress prediction model in this study showed that the forecast accuracy of the prediction model by the discriminant analysis method was 84.8% and 89.1% by the logit analysis method, indicating that the logit analysis method has higher distress predictability than the discriminant analysis method. Comparing the previous distress prediction capability, which ranges from 75% to 85% by discriminant analysis and logit analysis, this study's prediction capacity, which is 84.8% in the discriminant analysis, and 89.1% in logit analysis, is found to belong to the range of previous study's prediction capacity range and is considered high number.

국내 외식기업의 부실예측모형 평가 : 로짓분석을 적용하여 (Evaluation of Distress Prediction Model for Food Service Industry in Korea : Using the Logit Analysis)

  • 김시중
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • v.20 no.11
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    • pp.151-156
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구는 2017년 기준 매출액 상위 46개 외식 업체를 선정 후 이들 업체들의 재무 비율을 산출한 후 이를 변수로 활용하여 로짓 분석에 의한 부실 예측모형의 평가에 목적이 있다. 국내 46개 외식 업체의 14개 재무비율을 변수로 선정하여 로짓 분석에 의한 실증 분석을 실시하였으며 실증 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 14개 재무 비율 중 건전 외식 기업과 부실 외식 기업을 구분하는 재무 비율은 유동 비율, 매출액 영업 이익률, 자기 자본 순이익률, 영업 현금 흐름비율, 영업 이익 증가율 및 총자산 회전율로 총 7개로 나타났으며 다른 7개의 재무 비율( 부채 비율, 차입금 의존도, 영업 이익 대비 이자 보상 비율, 매출액 순이익률, 총자산 순이익률, 매출액 증가율, 당기순이익 증가율, 총자산 증가율)은 통계적으로 유의하지 않은 것으로 분석되었다. 둘째, 7개 재무 비율을 로짓 함수의 변수로 활용하여 건전 외식 기업과 부실 외식 기업을 구분하는 로짓 분석에 의한 부실 예측 모형의 예측력은 89.1%로 나타났다.

판별분석에 의한 기업부실예측력 평가: 서울지역 특1급 호텔 사례 분석 (Evaluation of Corporate Distress Prediction Power using the Discriminant Analysis: The Case of First-Class Hotels in Seoul)

  • 김시중
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.520-526
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구는 서울지역 특1급 호텔을 대상으로 2015년도 재무비율을 변수로 활용하여 표준재무비율을 산출하며, 다변량 판별분석에 의한 부실예측모형 개발 및 부실예측력 평가에 목적이 있다. 서울소재 19개 특1급 호텔의 14개 재무비율을 분석대상으로 선정하여 실증분석을 실시하였으며 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 분석결과 우수기업과 부실기업을 판별하는 7개 재무비율은 유동비율, 차입금의존도, 영업이익대비 이자보상비율, 매출액영업이익율, 자기자본순이익율, 영업현금흐름비율, 총자산회전율로 나타났다. 둘째, 7개 재무비율을 활용하여 우수기업과 부실기업을 판별하는 판별함수를 다변량판별분석에 의해 추정하였으며, 추정된 판별함수를 실제 소속집단과 예측집단으로 분류가 가능한가의 예측력 검정 결과, 예측 판별력의 정확도는 87.9%로 분석되었다. 셋째, 추정된 판별함수의 예측 판별력의 정확도 검증결과 판별분석에 의한 부실예측모형의 예측력은 78.95%로 분석되었다. 이러한 분석결과, 호텔 경영진은 호텔기업의 부실기업집단을 판별하는 7개 재무비율을 중점적으로 관리해야 함을 시사하고 있다. 또한 호텔기업이 타 산업과는 뚜렷한 재무구조의 차이와 부실예측 지표가 상이하며, 이에 호텔기업 대상의 신용평가시스템 구축 시 호텔기업의 재무적 특성을 반영한 시스템 구축이 필요함을 시사하고 있다.

A prediction model of low back pain risk: a population based cohort study in Korea

  • Mukasa, David;Sung, Joohon
    • The Korean Journal of Pain
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.153-165
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    • 2020
  • Background: Well-validated risk prediction models help to identify individuals at high risk of diseases and suggest preventive measures. A recent systematic review reported lack of validated prediction models for low back pain (LBP). We aimed to develop prediction models to estimate the 8-year risk of developing LBP and its recurrence. Methods: A population based prospective cohort study using data from 435,968 participants in the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort enrolled from 2002 to 2010. We used Cox proportional hazards models. Results: During median follow-up period of 8.4 years, there were 143,396 (32.9%) first onset LBP cases. The prediction model of first onset consisted of age, sex, income grade, alcohol consumption, physical exercise, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, blood pressure, and medical history of diseases. The model of 5-year recurrence risk was comprised of age, sex, income grade, BMI, length of prescription, and medical history of diseases. The Harrell's C-statistic was 0.812 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.804-0.820) and 0.916 (95% CI, 0.907-0.924) in validation cohorts of LBP onset and recurrence models, respectively. Age, disc degeneration, and sex conferred the highest risk points for onset, whereas age, spondylolisthesis, and disc degeneration conferred the highest risk for recurrence. Conclusions: LBP risk prediction models and simplified risk scores have been developed and validated using data from general medical practice. This study also offers an opportunity for external validation and updating of the models by incorporating other risk predictors in other settings, especially in this era of precision medicine.

소득계층별 한국 차입 가계의 부실화 가능성 연구 (The study on insolvency prediction for Korean households across income levels)

  • 이종희
    • 한국가족자원경영학회지
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.63-78
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    • 2018
  • This study examined the insolvency of debtors using multiple-indicator approaches and compared the outcomes across income levels with the 2016 'Household Financial and Welfare Survey'. This study used (1) the total debt to total assets ratio (DTA), (2) the total debt service ratio (DSR), and (3) the Household Default Risk Index (HDRI) recently developed by the Bank of Korea. Households in the lowest income quintile were more likely to be insolvent than any other income group. Demographics, such as age and gender of the household head, and most of the financial variables significantly increased the likelihood of insolvency based on the DTA. The number of household members and job status increased the likelihood of insolvency based on the DSR. Also, age, gender of the household head, and most of the financial variables increased the likelihood of household insolvency based on the HDRI after controlling for other demographics and financial variables.

임상간호사와 보건간호사의 피로와 건강증진행위에 대한 연구 (A Study on the Fatigue and Health Promoting Behavior of Public Health Nurses and Hospital Nurses)

  • 김선옥;소희영;김현리
    • 지역사회간호학회지
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.699-706
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    • 2003
  • The objective of this study is to find out the difference in perceptional fatigue and health promoting behavior between hospital nurses and public health nurses. The subjects of this study were 141 hospital nurses and 73 public health nurses in Daejeon. Data were collected using a self-reporting questionnaire during the period from the 5th to 16th of March 2003. Collected data were analyzed using SPSS program. Real number, percentage, mean and standard deviation were calculated, and $x^2$-test and t-test, ANOVA, Pearson's correlation coefficient, stepwise multiple regression procedures were carried out. The findings of this study as follows: 1. The mean score of health promoting behavior was 2.71. 2. There were statistically significant differences in health promoting behavior according to age, marital status, family status, residency, educational level, income, the length of work experience and the field of work. (p<0.05) 3. There were statistically significant differences in fatigue according to age, marital status, family status, educational level, income, the length of work experience, perceived health status and the field of work. (p<0.05) 4. The fatigue was found to be in significant negative correlations with health promoting (r=-0.358, p<0.000) and self efficacy (r=-0.314, p<0.000). On the contrary, a significant positive correlation was found between fatigue and perceived barriers (r=0.210, p<00.01). 5. There were five predictors affecting health promoting behavior, which were self-efficacy, income, perceived benefit, fatigue and family support. The most influential factor was self-efficacy that made 31% of prediction, followed by income (6%), perceived benefit (5.2%), fatigue (2.2%) and family support (1.7%) in their order. As a whole, these factors made 46.1% of prediction of health promotion behavior.

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제한된 볼츠만 기계학습 알고리즘을 이용한 우리나라 지역사회 노인의 경도인지장애 예측모형 (Mild Cognitive Impairment Prediction Model of Elderly in Korea Using Restricted Boltzmann Machine)

  • 변해원
    • 융합정보논문지
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    • v.9 no.8
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    • pp.248-253
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    • 2019
  • 노인성 치매의 전 임상단계인 경도인지장애(MCI)를 조기 진단하고, 조기 개입한다면, 치매의 발병률을 줄일 수 있다. 본 연구는 우리나라 지역사회 노인의 MCI 예측 모형을 개발하고 노년기 인지장애의 예방을 위한 기초자료를 제공하였다. 연구대상은 2012년 Korean Longitudinal Survey of Aging(KLoSA)에 참여한 65세 이상 지역사회 노인 3,240명(남성 1,502명, 여성 1,738명)이다. 결과변수는 MCI유병으로 정의하였고, 설명변수는 성, 연령, 혼인상태, 교육수준, 소득수준, 흡연, 음주, 주1회 이상의 정기적인 운동, 월평균 사회활동 참여시간, 주관적 건강, 고혈압, 당뇨병을 포함하였다. 예측모형의 개발은 Restricted Boltzmann Machine(RBM) 인공신경망을 이용하였다. RMB 인공신경망을 이용하여 우리나라 지역사회 노인의 MCI 예측 모형을 구축한 결과, 유의미한 요인은 연령, 성별, 최종학력, 주관적 건강, 혼인상태, 소득수준, 흡연, 규칙적 운동이었다. 이 결과를 기초로 MCI 고위험군의 특성을 고려한 맞춤형 치매 예방 프로그램의 개발이 요구된다.

도시지역에 있어서 선어의 수요분석 -육류와의 대체관계를 중심으로- (Demand Analysis of Fresh-fish in the Urban Communities)

  • 김수관
    • 수산경영론집
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.114-130
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    • 1984
  • The structure of food demand is being changed according to the improvement of living standard. Moreover, the intake of animal protein is stepping up. This paper considers how much fresh-fish is consumed as source of animal protein and what extent fresh-fish have substitutive relation for meat with special reference to the change of income and price of fresh-fish and meat. And it is thought to be important work to estimate demand of fresh-fish in attemps to the prediction of food consume pattern and fishing industries in the future. For this estimation, the substitutive relation of fresh-fish and meat is essentially studied. The main conclusions of this study can be drawn as follows: 1. Fresh-fish and meat have substitutive relation on price axis. By the way, increase in demand of A (fresh-fish which have comparatively low price) can be expected according to the low of it's price against meat, but B (fresh-fish wihich have comparatively middle-high price) have peculiar demand without substitutive relation for meat. 2. Demand of A and B rise according to the income increases. 3. It is not sufficient to explain substutive relation of fresh-fish and meat without income variable. 4. Income increases bring about the more increase in demand of B than A. By the way, price increases bring about the decrease of it's consume expenditure, but A have fundamental demand as the source of animal protein. 5. In future, the intake of animal protein will step up. By the way, meat will occupy the more portion of the source of animal protein than fresh-fish.

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Analysis of The Management of Three Tertiary General Hospital(2011 to 2013)

  • Park, Hyun-Suk
    • 한국임상보건과학회지
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.582-592
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    • 2016
  • Purpose. For more effective hospital management, it analyzes the trend through general characteristics, balance sheet, income statement, and financial ratio analysis, grasps the causes of the problems, and analyzes management of the hospital in order to use the result as baseline data for development of the hospital in the future. Methods. The collected data of 3 years from 2011 to 2013 about 3 tertiary hospitals in metropolitan cities from Alio (provider of public institution information; www.alio.go.kr), Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service (www.hira.or.kr), and the website of the Ministry of Health and Welfare (www.mw.go.kr) were analyzed and general characteristics, balance sheet, income statement, and financial ratio, analysis are used as data. Results & Conclusions. From the result of data analysis from 2011 to 2013, general characteristics, balance sheet, income statement, financial ratio analysis, and pie charts could lead to conclusions as follows. In the result of comprehensive analysis, the 3 tertiary hospitals showed increase of fixed expense due to extension of the buildings and so did the scale of fund and asset. Although medical revenue increased, the margin of increase for medical expense was greater than that of medical revenue, which consequently led to loss. In prediction for the 3 tertiary hospitals based on characteristics so far, it is expected to see improved revenue structure after building extension is completed, but it is necessary to exert management effort to maintain its optimal level by enhancement in stability of management and inventory turnover through management of inventories.

The Usefulness of Other Comprehensive Income for Predicting Future Earnings

  • LEE, Joonil;LEE, Su Jeong;CHOI, Sera;KIM, Seunghwan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics, and Business
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2020
  • This study investigates whether other comprehensive income (OCI) reported in the statement of comprehensive income (one of the main financial statements after the adoption of K-IFRS) predicts a firm's future performance. Using the quarterly data of Korean listed companies, we examine the association between OCI estimates and future earnings. First of all, we find that OCI is positively associated with earnings in both 1- and 2-quarter ahead, supporting the predictive value of OCI. When we break down OCI into its individual components, our results suggest that the net unrealized gains/losses on available-for-sale (AFS) investment securities are positively associated with future earnings, while the other components (e.g., net unrealized gains/losses on valuation of cash flow hedge derivatives) present insignificant results. In addition, we investigate whether the reliability in OCI estimates enhances the predictive value of OCI to predict future performance. We find that the predictive ability of OCI, in particular the net unrealized gains/losses on available-for-sale (AFS) investment securities, becomes more pronounced when firms are audited by the Big 4 audit firms. Overall, our study suggests that information content embedded in OCI can provide decision-useful information that is helpful for the prediction of future firm performance.